THE PHOENIX ACADEMY
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -8.3%/year, projecting from 2024's 54 students:
≈ 19 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $12,226 per student in district revenue, the 19 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $232,294/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANSFIELD LEGACY H S MANSFIELD |
Public | 1.6 | 2,568 | +4.9% |
| MANSFIELD H S MANSFIELD |
Public | 2.5 | 2,552 | -1.2% |
| MANSFIELD FRONTIER STEM ACADEMY MANSFIELD |
Public | 2.6 | 326 | +109.0% |
| MANSFIELD SUMMIT H S ARLINGTON |
Public | 3.4 | 1,772 | -7.0% |
| MANSFIELD LAKE RIDGE H S MANSFIELD |
Public | 4.4 | 2,751 | +6.1% |
| ILTEXAS ARLINGTON-GRAND PRAIRIE H S GRAND PRAIRIE |
Public · charter | 4.8 | 749 | +11.0% |
| SEGUIN H S ARLINGTON |
Public | 5.0 | 1,554 | -1.1% |
| MANSFIELD TIMBERVIEW H S ARLINGTON |
Public | 5.1 | 1,788 | -9.4% |