FRUITVALE H S
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -4.9%/year, projecting from 2024's 99 students:
≈ 22 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $16,391 per student in district revenue, the 22 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $360,602/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGEWOOD H S EDGEWOOD |
Public | 4.2 | 281 | -14.6% |
| GRAND SALINE H S GRAND SALINE |
Public | 5.1 | 363 | +13.4% |
| VAN ZANDT CO YOUTH MULTI-SERVICE CTR GRAND SALINE |
Public | 5.6 | 11 | — |
| CANTON H S CANTON |
Public | 10.9 | 650 | -0.3% |
| WILLS POINT H S WILLS POINT |
Public | 13.3 | 812 | +4.5% |
| ALBA-GOLDEN H S ALBA |
Public | 13.5 | 249 | +10.7% |
| VAN H S VAN |
Public | 14.0 | 768 | +3.1% |
| RAINS H S EMORY |
Public | 14.2 | 531 | +12.5% |