DUNCANVILLE H S
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -1.1%/year, projecting from 2024's 4,399 students:
≈ 239 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $13,295 per student in district revenue, the 239 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $3,177,505/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUMMIT LEARNING CENTER DUNCANVILLE |
Public | 1.2 | — | — |
| MARY E SMITHEY PACE H S DUNCANVILLE |
Public | 1.8 | 76 | -12.6% |
| HARMONY SCHOOL OF EXCELLENCE - DALLAS DALLAS |
Public · charter | 2.2 | 288 | +5.1% |
| VILLAGE TECH SCHOOLS DUNCANVILLE |
Public · charter | 2.2 | 335 | +23.2% |
| UME DALLAS SECONDARY DALLAS |
Public · charter | 2.4 | 435 | +17.6% |
| Advanced Preparatory International Dallas |
Private | 3.8 | 55 | — |
| JUSTIN F KIMBALL H S DALLAS |
Public | 4.0 | 1,175 | -10.6% |
| WINFREE ACADEMY CHARTER SCHOOL DALLAS DALLAS |
Public · charter | 4.3 | 245 | +39.2% |