CHANNING SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -9.5%/year, projecting from 2024's 121 students:
≈ 47 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $18,089 per student in district revenue, the 47 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $850,183/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOYS RANCH H S BOYS RANCH |
Public | 11.4 | 88 | -15.4% |
| HARTLEY SCHOOL HARTLEY |
Public | 14.1 | 69 | +11.3% |
| DUMAS H S DUMAS |
Public | 23.7 | 1,192 | +3.7% |
| NORTH PLAINS OPPORTUNITY CENTER DUMAS |
Public | 25.2 | 35 | — |
| DALHART H S DALHART |
Public | 26.8 | 481 | +4.8% |
| VEGA H S VEGA |
Public | 30.2 | 108 | -15.0% |
| ADRIAN SCHOOL ADRIAN |
Public | 33.7 | 42 | — |
| WILDORADO SCHOOL WILDORADO |
Public | 35.3 | 68 | -5.6% |