ABERNATHY H S
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -2.4%/year, projecting from 2024's 237 students:
≈ 27 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $15,658 per student in district revenue, the 27 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $422,766/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW DEAL H S NEW DEAL |
Public | 6.7 | 228 | +0.9% |
| NEW DEAL DAEP NEW DEAL |
Public | 7.0 | 3 | — |
| SHALLOWATER H S SHALLOWATER |
Public | 12.5 | 518 | +5.3% |
| COTTON CENTER SCHOOL COTTON CENTER |
Public | 13.6 | 24 | — |
| PETERSBURG SCHOOL PETERSBURG |
Public | 14.2 | 82 | +6.5% |
| IDALOU H S IDALOU |
Public | 14.9 | 297 | +2.1% |
| ESTACADO H S LUBBOCK |
Public | 15.4 | 787 | -13.4% |
| HALE CENTER H S HALE CENTER |
Public | 15.4 | 174 | +12.3% |