TRINITY CHARTER SCHOOLS - CANYON LAKE CAMPUS
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -26.6%/year, projecting from 2024's 15 students:
≈ 12 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $21,940 per student in district revenue, the 12 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $263,280/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CANYON LAKE H S FISCHER |
Public | 5.8 | 1,066 | -2.3% |
| Grace Preparatory Academy Of New Braunfels New Braunfels |
Private | 9.5 | 162 | -12.0% |
| New Braunfels Christian Academy New Braunfels |
Private | 10.1 | 495 | +26.3% |
| NEW BRAUNFELS H S NEW BRAUNFELS |
Public | 10.2 | 1,990 | +2.1% |
| WIMBERLEY H S WIMBERLEY |
Public | 10.4 | 820 | -1.1% |
| KATHERINE ANNE PORTER SCHOOL WIMBERLEY |
Public · charter | 10.5 | 82 | +10.8% |
| San Marcos Baptist Academy San Marcos |
Private | 11.1 | 296 | +14.7% |
| SMITHSON VALLEY H S SPRING BRANCH |
Public | 11.6 | 2,098 | -18.8% |