SMITHSON VALLEY H S
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -6.7%/year, projecting from 2024's 2,098 students:
≈ 616 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $12,614 per student in district revenue, the 616 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $7,770,224/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bracken Christian School Bulverde |
Private | 4.2 | 373 | +59.4% |
| HILL COUNTRY COLLEGE PREP H S BULVERDE |
Public | 4.5 | 178 | +40.2% |
| Living Rock Academy Bulverde |
Private | 6.8 | 148 | +31.0% |
| PIEPER H S SAN ANTONIO |
Public | 8.7 | 2,093 | +139.2% |
| DAVENPORT H S SAN ANTONIO |
Public | 10.7 | 1,233 | +23.8% |
| JOHNSON H S SAN ANTONIO |
Public | 11.0 | 3,196 | -2.0% |
| TRINITY CHARTER SCHOOLS - CANYON LAKE CAMPUS CANYON LAKE |
Public · charter | 11.6 | 12 | — |
| New Braunfels Christian Academy New Braunfels |
Private | 12.1 | 495 | +26.3% |