ALTER IMPACT CTR
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -6.3%/year, projecting from 2024's 70 students:
≈ 19 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $12,845 per student in district revenue, the 19 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $244,055/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOE AND GENE JOHNSON H S BUDA |
Public | 0.3 | 2,870 | +16.9% |
| JACK C HAYS H S BUDA |
Public | 4.4 | 2,304 | +18.8% |
| LIVE OAK ACADEMY BUDA |
Public | 4.5 | 184 | -29.5% |
| Veritas Academy Austin |
Private | 5.0 | 647 | -37.7% |
| VALOR SOUTH AUSTIN AUSTIN |
Public · charter | 5.6 | 245 | +169.2% |
| AKINS EARLY COLLEGE H S AUSTIN |
Public | 6.6 | 2,421 | -8.3% |
| BOWIE H S AUSTIN |
Public | 6.7 | 2,876 | +1.7% |
| IDEA KYLE COLLEGE PREPARATORY KYLE |
Public · charter | 6.9 | 320 | +175.9% |