Pacific Bay Christian School

Pacifica · San Mateo County · Private (Other religious)
Private San Mateo County ~22 seniors
📄 Shareable scorecard →

Compare with peers

Most similar nearby schools

Jewish Community Hs of the Bay → San Francisco Christian School → Stuart Hall High School → Convent of the Sacred Heart Hs → Immaculate Conception Academy → Compare all similar →

Enrollment trend & projection

Total enrollment (9–12)
254 (2020)178 (2025)
-29.9%
Grade 12 (graduating class)
32 (2020)22 (2025)
-31.2%

If this trend holds (-6.9%/yr, Total enrollment)

At tuition of $ / student:

Horizon Projected Total enrollment Change Tuition impact / yr
1 yr (2026) ~166 -12 $0
3 yr (2028) ~144 -34 $0
5 yr (2030) ~125 -53 $0

Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Edit the figure to match your school.

Financial profile — IRS Form 990, FY2023

From 1 years of Form 990 filings via ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer (free public IRS data). The school's tax filings show financial scale, fundraising health, and endowment trajectory — signals that drive board-level conversations about tuition pricing, financial-aid capacity, and capital projects.

Total revenue
$4.0M
FY2023
Net assets (endowment + property)
$0.2M
Tuition revenue (program)
$4.0M
≈ $22318/student avg
Gifts & grants
$0.0M
fundraising

Source: IRS Form 990 via ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer (EIN 830667844). Tuition-per-student is total program-service revenue divided by latest enrollment — a rough average that includes auxiliary revenue (athletics, food service, etc.); the actual published tuition can differ. Form 990 is filed annually under penalty of perjury, so the financial scale figures are authoritative.

📊 Key takeaway · Class of 2025

Pacific Bay Christian School sent 80 applications to the six most selective University of California campuses and 21.2% were admitted, producing a UC Reach of 77.3%58.8 percentage points above the California median of 18.5%, higher than 98% of California high schools..

University of California outcomes · Class of 2025
★ Top 5% UC Reach
UC Reach
77%
17 admits / 22 seniors
+52.6 pp above peer median (24.7%) · Ranked #1 of 8 similar schools
5-year trend
2020 · 25.0% 2025 · 77.3%
Where this sits on the California curve
CA median
18.5%
Peer median
24.7%
Top 10%
53.3%
This school
77.3%
0%50%100%
CA median 18.5% Top 10% ≥ 53.3% This school 77.3%

Higher than 98% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)

📊 What this number means

Pacific Bay Christian School's UC Reach of 77.3% clears the statewide top-10% cutoff (53.3%) — meaning roughly 77 top-6 UC admits per 100 seniors, well above what most California schools achieve.

In San Mateo County — a competitive market where the median is already 29.6% — this still clears the county top-10% bar (65.8%).

For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 25 pp from where this school sits.

Overall, Pacific Bay Christian School's UC Reach is higher than 98% of California high schools (1105 ranked).

UC Application Reach
363.6%
80 applications
Strong UC pursuit. The typical senior is applying to about 4 top-6 UC campuses — a signal of a college-driven student body.
In context: CA median 78.3% · Top 10% statewide ≥ 245.8% · San Mateo Co. Top 10% ≥ 339.9% · higher than 98% of CA HS.
UC Admit Rate
21.2%
17 / 80 applications
In context: CA median 26.0% · Top 10% statewide ≥ 40.5% · higher than 22% of CA HS.
UC Yield Rate
17.6%
3 enrolled of 17 admitted
Yield vs. Enrollment Reach: Yield answers "of UC admits, what % chose UC?" — denominator is just the admits. A small admitted cohort can post a low yield even when the school sends a healthy share of its class to UC.
UC Enrollment Reach
13.6%
3 enrollees / 22 seniors
Enrollment Reach vs. Yield: Reach answers "of the whole senior class, what % ended up at UC?" — denominator is everyone. High Yield with low Enrollment Reach is common at elite privates: most admits matriculate, but the school sends most of its class to non-UC selective colleges.
Selective UC Reach (UCSD, UCSB, UCI, UCD)
40.9
per 100 seniors · campus-level total
In context: CA median 15.7 · Top 10% statewide ≥ 42.4 · higher than 89% of CA HS.
Elite UC Reach (UCB + UCLA)
N/A
Senior Class Size
22
Private School Affidavit
Total School Enrollment
178
All grades · Private School Affidavit

Private-school figures come from the California Private School Affidavit. Per CDE, inclusion in private-school data is not an evaluation, approval, or endorsement of a school.

Pacific Bay Christian School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot

Private · Other religious · Pacifica · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools

  • On UC Reach, Pacific Bay Christian School sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #1 of 8): 77% vs. a peer median of 25%.
  • Its UC Reach has risen 52 points since 2020.
  • Across the top-6 UC campuses, Pacific Bay Christian School is admitting at roughly +12 percentage points above what its average applicant GPA (3.987) alone would predict (37% actual vs. 25% expected). That's a meaningful signal — it can reflect UC's track record with this school's graduates, students presenting strongly in UC's holistic review (essays, EC's, context), or institutional familiarity helping at the margin. The data can't distinguish which, but the pattern itself is real and worth understanding.
  • Senior-class enrollment is down 31% (32→22 from 2020 to 2025), trailing the peer-group median of -8%.
  • At its recent rate (-6.9%/yr), enrollment projects to ~144 by 2028 — about 34 fewer students than today.

Enrollment projection

178 students (2025)
~144 projected (2028)
at -6.9%/yr

That's about 34 fewer students. At a tuition of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual tuition revenue at risk.

Default derived from this school's own IRS Form 990 (FY2023): program-service revenue ÷ enrollment, rounded to the nearest $1k — an authoritative average that includes auxiliary revenue (athletics, food service). Your published tuition may differ; adjust if needed. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.

Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools

School Type Size UC Reach Enroll. trend
Pacific Bay Christian School Private · Other religious 178 77.3% -31%
Peer-group median 24.7% -8%
Jewish Community Hs of the Bay Private · Other religious 174 18.8% +46%
San Francisco Christian School Private · Other religious 259 -60%
Stuart Hall High School Private · Catholic 204 36.4% +0%
Convent of the Sacred Heart Hs Private · Catholic 220 17.0% +0%
Immaculate Conception Academy Private · Catholic 239 66.1% -31%
Kehillah Jewish High School Private · Other religious 185 +17%
Mercy High School Private · Catholic 354 24.7% -19%
Khan Lab School Private · Other religious 135 +90%
Holy Names High School Private · Catholic 129 10.0% -17%
Notre Dame High School Private · Catholic 356 69.0% -34%

UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type, and religious orientation. Methodology →

Avg. Applicant GPA · top-6 UCs
3.99
Avg. Admitted GPA · top-6 UCs
4.12

GPA figures reflect 2024 — UC has not yet released applicant/admit GPA for 2025.

UC funnel — which kids are getting in at what GPA

Combining the school's applicant pool GPA, admit pool GPA, actual admit rate, and statewide CA admit rates by individual GPA band, we can read which GPA tiers tend to get in — and which don't.

🎯 Who's actually getting into UC from Pacific Bay Christian School
Campus 4.00+ GPA 3.70–3.99 GPA 3.30–3.69 GPA < 3.30 GPA
UC San Diego Strong shot Real shot Long odds Filtered out
UC Irvine Strong shot Real shot Long odds Filtered out
UC Davis Strong shot Real shot Moderate Filtered out
Strong shot = ≥30% statewide admit rate at this band · Real shot = 10–29% · Moderate = 5–9% · Long odds = 1–4% · Filtered out = under 1%. Tiers map this school's likely outcomes by GPA tier using statewide CA admit rates from UCOP 2024.

The numbers behind it

Campus Applicant GPA Admit GPA Lift Admit rate vs peer schools @ same GPA
UC San Diego 3.96 4.12 +0.16 35.3% Peers +0.27 · wider
UC Irvine (2018) 3.71 4.02 +0.31 31.2% Peers +0.40 · wider
UC Davis 4.01 4.12 +0.11 63.2% Peers +0.21 · wider
📊 Statewide CA admit rates by individual GPA band, 2024 (for reference)
GPA band UCB UCLA UCSD UCSB UCI UCD
4.00+ 17.1% 14.4% 43.5% 57.3% 46.0% 64.1%
3.70–3.99 2.8% 1.5% 11.2% 9.2% 16.5% 27.5%
3.30–3.69 0.8% 0.9% 1.4% 2.3% 3.4% 9.1%
3.00–3.29 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 2.1%
< 3.00 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
How we infer the tier labels: Each tier comes from the statewide CA admit rate at that GPA band at that UC. The "vs peers" column compares this school's lift (admit GPA − applicant GPA) to the average lift at ~100–300 other CA schools with similar applicant pool GPA. What this isn't: a guarantee. UC comprehensive review weighs essays, course rigor, demographics, and context-of-opportunity beyond GPA. A 3.9 with strong context can land an admit; a 4.0 with weak essays can be denied. Use as a baseline expectation, not a verdict. Per-campus year is shown when it differs from the headline year (UCOP doesn't always publish admit-GPA for every campus every year).

Where Pacific Bay Christian School sits vs. all California schools

Overall, this school admits its UC applicants 11.8 points above what their GPAs predict (36.6% actual vs. 24.8% expected), based on 2024 data.

UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025

UC Admit Rate %
UC Reach % (where available)
UC Admits (count, right axis)

Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.

Campus Breakdown — 2025

Campus Applicants Admits Enrollees Admit Rate UC Reach Yield Avg GPA (App) '24 Avg GPA (Adm) '24
UC Berkeley → Elite 12 4.01
UCLA → Elite 12 4.02
UC San Diego → Selective 15 3 20.0% 13.6% 3.96 4.12
UC Santa Barbara → Selective 14 3.96
UC Irvine → Selective 13 6 3 46.2% 27.3% 50.0% 3.98
UC Davis → 14 8 57.1% 36.4% 4.01 4.12
⚠ Campus-level totals may count one student admitted to multiple UC campuses more than once. Admit Volume metrics are not the same as UC Reach, which requires unique-student counts. See methodology →

What This Means

A large share of the senior class applies to UC, indicating strong college-going culture and UC pipeline development.
A large share of the class applies to UC, so the admit rate runs lower than the application volume alone might suggest — expected when many students apply broadly, including to reach campuses. UC Reach (which credits every admit relative to the class) is the truer read of how the class fares: a strong Reach alongside a moderate admit rate is healthy, not a contradiction.
UC Reach is very strong — more than 77% of seniors are earning UC admission. This places the school among California's highest-performing high schools on this metric.
Strong UC Reach paired with low yield: students are earning UC admission at high rates and then enrolling elsewhere. The pattern is characteristic of competitive college-preparatory schools where many students choose more selective private colleges or out-of-state flagships over UC — UC functions as a strong backup option rather than a first choice.
The school generates broad UC access, but fewer students are reaching the most selective UC campuses (UCLA, Berkeley, UCSD, UCSB, UCI). Targeted academic enrichment and campus-fit advising may help.
UC Reach has declined meaningfully year-over-year. This should be reviewed in context of applicant volume, GPA trends, course rigor changes, and peer-school performance before drawing conclusions.
Note: admit counts used here are campus-level totals. A student admitted to both UCLA and UCSD is counted twice. When UCOP unique-student data becomes available it will be loaded automatically and the labels will update.
Compare with other schools → See San Mateo County rankings →

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