Compare with peers
Most similar nearby schools
Jewish Community Hs of the Bay → San Francisco Christian School → Stuart Hall High School → Convent of the Sacred Heart Hs → Immaculate Conception Academy → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-6.9%/yr, Total enrollment)
At tuition of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Tuition impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2026) | ~166 | -12 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2028) | ~144 | -34 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2030) | ~125 | -53 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Edit the figure to match your school.
Financial profile — IRS Form 990, FY2023
From 1 years of Form 990 filings via ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer (free public IRS data). The school's tax filings show financial scale, fundraising health, and endowment trajectory — signals that drive board-level conversations about tuition pricing, financial-aid capacity, and capital projects.
Source: IRS Form 990 via ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer (EIN 830667844). Tuition-per-student is total program-service revenue divided by latest enrollment — a rough average that includes auxiliary revenue (athletics, food service, etc.); the actual published tuition can differ. Form 990 is filed annually under penalty of perjury, so the financial scale figures are authoritative.
Pacific Bay Christian School sent 80 applications to the six most selective University of California campuses and 21.2% were admitted, producing a UC Reach of 77.3% — 58.8 percentage points above the California median of 18.5%, higher than 98% of California high schools..
+52.6 pp above peer median (24.7%) · Ranked #1 of 8 similar schools
18.5%
24.7%
53.3%
77.3%
Higher than 98% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Pacific Bay Christian School's UC Reach of 77.3% clears the statewide top-10% cutoff (53.3%) — meaning roughly 77 top-6 UC admits per 100 seniors, well above what most California schools achieve.
In San Mateo County — a competitive market where the median is already 29.6% — this still clears the county top-10% bar (65.8%).
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 25 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Pacific Bay Christian School's UC Reach is higher than 98% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Private-school figures come from the California Private School Affidavit. Per CDE, inclusion in private-school data is not an evaluation, approval, or endorsement of a school.
Pacific Bay Christian School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Private · Other religious · Pacifica · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Pacific Bay Christian School sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #1 of 8): 77% vs. a peer median of 25%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 52 points since 2020.
- ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, Pacific Bay Christian School is admitting at roughly +12 percentage points above what its average applicant GPA (3.987) alone would predict (37% actual vs. 25% expected). That's a meaningful signal — it can reflect UC's track record with this school's graduates, students presenting strongly in UC's holistic review (essays, EC's, context), or institutional familiarity helping at the margin. The data can't distinguish which, but the pattern itself is real and worth understanding.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 31% (32→22 from 2020 to 2025), trailing the peer-group median of -8%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-6.9%/yr), enrollment projects to ~144 by 2028 — about 34 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 34 fewer students. At a tuition of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual tuition revenue at risk.
Default derived from this school's own IRS Form 990 (FY2023): program-service revenue ÷ enrollment, rounded to the nearest $1k — an authoritative average that includes auxiliary revenue (athletics, food service). Your published tuition may differ; adjust if needed. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific Bay Christian School | Private · Other religious | 178 | 77.3% | -31% |
| Peer-group median | 24.7% | -8% | ||
| Jewish Community Hs of the Bay | Private · Other religious | 174 | 18.8% | +46% |
| San Francisco Christian School | Private · Other religious | 259 | — | -60% |
| Stuart Hall High School | Private · Catholic | 204 | 36.4% | +0% |
| Convent of the Sacred Heart Hs | Private · Catholic | 220 | 17.0% | +0% |
| Immaculate Conception Academy | Private · Catholic | 239 | 66.1% | -31% |
| Kehillah Jewish High School | Private · Other religious | 185 | — | +17% |
| Mercy High School | Private · Catholic | 354 | 24.7% | -19% |
| Khan Lab School | Private · Other religious | 135 | — | +90% |
| Holy Names High School | Private · Catholic | 129 | 10.0% | -17% |
| Notre Dame High School | Private · Catholic | 356 | 69.0% | -34% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type, and religious orientation. Methodology →
GPA figures reflect 2024 — UC has not yet released applicant/admit GPA for 2025.
UC funnel — which kids are getting in at what GPA
Combining the school's applicant pool GPA, admit pool GPA, actual admit rate, and statewide CA admit rates by individual GPA band, we can read which GPA tiers tend to get in — and which don't.
| Campus | 4.00+ GPA | 3.70–3.99 GPA | 3.30–3.69 GPA | < 3.30 GPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego | Strong shot | Real shot | Long odds | Filtered out |
| UC Irvine | Strong shot | Real shot | Long odds | Filtered out |
| UC Davis | Strong shot | Real shot | Moderate | Filtered out |
The numbers behind it
| Campus | Applicant GPA | Admit GPA | Lift ⓘ | Admit rate | vs peer schools @ same GPA ⓘ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego | 3.96 | 4.12 | +0.16 | 35.3% | Peers +0.27 · wider |
| UC Irvine (2018) | 3.71 | 4.02 | +0.31 | 31.2% | Peers +0.40 · wider |
| UC Davis | 4.01 | 4.12 | +0.11 | 63.2% | Peers +0.21 · wider |
📊 Statewide CA admit rates by individual GPA band, 2024 (for reference)
| GPA band | UCB | UCLA | UCSD | UCSB | UCI | UCD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00+ | 17.1% | 14.4% | 43.5% | 57.3% | 46.0% | 64.1% |
| 3.70–3.99 | 2.8% | 1.5% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 16.5% | 27.5% |
| 3.30–3.69 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 9.1% |
| 3.00–3.29 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.1% |
| < 3.00 | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
Where Pacific Bay Christian School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants 11.8 points above what their GPAs predict (36.6% actual vs. 24.8% expected), based on 2024 data.
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) '24 | Avg GPA (Adm) '24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 15 | 3 | — | 20.0% | 13.6% | — | 3.96 | 4.12 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 13 | 6 | 3 | 46.2% | 27.3% | 50.0% | 3.98 | — |
| UC Davis → | 14 | 8 | — | 57.1% | 36.4% | — | 4.01 | 4.12 |