Compare with peers
Most similar nearby schools
Basis Independent Silicon Vall → Oakwood School → Palma High School → Presentation High School → Ripon Christian High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.4%/yr, Total enrollment)
At tuition of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Tuition impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2026) | ~832 | -4 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2028) | ~825 | -11 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2030) | ~818 | -18 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Edit the figure to match your school.
-17.3 pp vs. peer median (42.7%) · Ranked #6 of 8 similar schools
18.6%
42.7%
53.4%
25.4%
Higher than 64% of California high schools (1142 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Monte Vista Christian Hs's UC Reach of 25.4% is above the California median (18.6%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.4% or higher.
Against similar schools, Monte Vista Christian Hs trails the peer-group median (42.7%) — even though it looks strong vs. the state average.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 95.1% — a gap of 70 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Monte Vista Christian Hs's UC Reach is higher than 64% of California high schools (1142 ranked).
Private-school figures come from the California Private School Affidavit. Per CDE, inclusion in private-school data is not an evaluation, approval, or endorsement of a school.
Monte Vista Christian Hs — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Private · Other religious · Watsonville · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Monte Vista Christian Hs sits near the bottom of its similar-school group (ranked #6 of 8): 25% vs. a peer median of 43%.
- ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, Monte Vista Christian Hs is admitting at roughly -7 percentage points below what its average applicant GPA (3.933) alone would predict (17% actual vs. 24% expected). That's worth understanding — it can reflect grade inflation that UC sees through, weaker holistic-review materials at the margin, or applicants concentrating at more selective campuses than typical. Not a verdict; a signal.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 34% (182→121 from 2020 to 2025), trailing the peer-group median of -8%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.4%/yr), enrollment projects to ~825 by 2028 — about 11 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 11 fewer students. At a tuition of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual tuition revenue at risk.
Estimate seeded by other religious private school typical — wide range: Jewish day $25k–35k, Lutheran/Christian $10k–18k. NCES doesn't publish per-school tuition; adjust to your school's actual figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monte Vista Christian Hs | Private · Other religious | 836 | 25.4% | -34% |
| Peer-group median | 42.7% | -8% | ||
| Basis Independent Silicon Vall | Private | 819 | — | +14% |
| Oakwood School | Private · secular | 546 | 87.5% | +25% |
| Palma High School | Private · Catholic | 584 | 22.7% | -5% |
| Presentation High School | Private · Catholic | 545 | 42.7% | -17% |
| Ripon Christian High School | Private · Other religious | 906 | — | +36% |
| Big Valley Christian Hs | Private · Other religious | 762 | 12.0% | -19% |
| The Kings Academy | Private · Other religious | 1205 | 64.8% | -10% |
| Moreau Catholic High School | Private · Catholic | 806 | 43.9% | -18% |
| Granada Islamic School | Private · Other religious | 456 | — | +450% |
| Cristo Rey San Jose Jesuit Hs | Private · Catholic | 435 | 35.2% | -14% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type, and religious orientation. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 3.99 | 11.5% | 9.1% | +2.4pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.94 | 15.0% | 22.2% | -7.2pp | Under |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.94 | 20.0% | 29.6% | -9.6pp | Under |
| UC Irvine | 3.95 | 11.1% | 23.4% | -12.3pp | Under |
| UC Davis | 3.87 | 26.2% | 30.6% | -4.4pp | On target |
Where Monte Vista Christian Hs sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants 6.8 points below what their GPAs predict (16.9% actual vs. 23.8% expected).
Campus Breakdown — 2024
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 26 | 3 | — | 11.5% | 2.5% | — | 3.99 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 40 | 6 | — | 15.0% | 4.9% | — | 3.94 | 4.24 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 30 | 6 | — | 20.0% | 4.9% | — | 3.94 | 4.26 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 45 | 5 | — | 11.1% | 4.1% | — | 3.95 | 4.06 |
| UC Davis → | 42 | 11 | 7 | 26.2% | 9.0% | 63.6% | 3.87 | 3.99 |