Compare with peers
Most similar nearby schools
Yosemite High (continuation) → Denair High School → Le Grand High → Come Back Charter → Independence High (alternative) → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (+11.6%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~334 | +35 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~416 | +117 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~518 | +219 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Merced County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Enrollment -13.8% vs. county +7.6% AND stability (67.6%) below the county median. Recruitment and retention both under pressure — likely a foundational rather than tactical problem.
56 of 173 students who enrolled at Merced Scholars Charter Sch this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (32.4% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is down 3.9 pp since 2016-17. Engagement improving — a positive trajectory worth understanding and reinforcing.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
Merced Scholars Charter Sch — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Merced · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 14% (29→25 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +4%.
- ▸Enrollment has been growing (+11.6%/yr); projects to ~416 by 2029.
Enrollment projection
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merced Scholars Charter Sch | Public | 299 | — | -14% |
| Peer-group median | 8.6% | +4% | ||
| Yosemite High (continuation) | Public | 295 | — | -8% |
| Denair High School | Public | 313 | 3.4% | +8% |
| Le Grand High | Public | 485 | — | +0% |
| Come Back Charter | Public | 105 | — | +384% |
| Independence High (alternative) | Public | 94 | — | +95% |
| Keyes To Learning Charter | Public | 343 | — | -15% |
| Roselawn High | Public | 190 | — | +20% |
| Fusion Charter | Public | 170 | — | +21% |
| Delhi High School | Public | 716 | 25.3% | -15% |
| Dos Palos High School | Public | 632 | 8.6% | -14% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Campus Breakdown — 2024
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Davis → | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |