Early College High School
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Most similar nearby schools
College And Career Preparatory Academy → Coast High School → Hillview High (continuation) → Richland Continuation High → Back Bay High → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-3.9%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~142 | -6 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~131 | -17 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~121 | -27 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Orange County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Early College High School's enrollment is shrinking 4.1× the county rate (school -29.1% vs. county -7.1%). Stability of 96.1% means every family you keep is one fewer; the leverage is at recruitment, not retention. This is the case the high stability number alone would hide.
7 of 180 students who enrolled at Early College High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (3.9% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 3.5 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Newport-Mesa Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 78.6%
Federal: 7.2%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Newport-Mesa Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
18.5%
53.3%
36.5%
Higher than 79% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Early College High School's UC Reach of 36.5% is in the top quartile statewide (median 18.5%; top 25% bar 32.0%) — but it's still below the top-10% bar of 53.3%.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 66 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Early College High School's UC Reach is higher than 79% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Early College High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Costa Mesa · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸Early College High School's most recent UC Reach is 36% (share of seniors admitted to a top-6 UC).
- ▸Its UC Reach has slipped 7 points since 2018 — worth watching.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 29% (55→39 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of -17%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-3.9%/yr), enrollment projects to ~131 by 2029 — about 17 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 17 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early College High School | Public | 148 | 36.5% | -29% |
| Peer-group median | — | -17% | ||
| College And Career Preparatory Academy | Public | 170 | — | -18% |
| Coast High School | Public | 201 | — | +89% |
| Hillview High (continuation) | Public | 137 | — | -8% |
| Richland Continuation High | Public | 143 | — | -45% |
| Back Bay High | Public | 101 | — | -34% |
| Valley Vista High | Public | 250 | — | -6% |
| Vista Meridian Global Academy | Public | 247 | — | -16% |
| Marie L. Hare High | Public | 222 | — | +4% |
| Lorin Griset Academy | Public | 285 | — | -20% |
| Monte Vista Independent Study | Public | 65 | — | -26% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego | 3.80 | 20.0% | 25.0% | -5.0pp | On target |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.85 | 21.4% | 27.3% | -5.8pp | Under |
| UC Irvine | 3.74 | 22.2% | 18.6% | +3.6pp | On target |
| UC Davis | 3.83 | 53.8% | 32.1% | +21.8pp | Over |
Where Early College High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (27.5% actual vs. 24.3% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 15 | 3 | — | 20.0% | 5.8% | — | 3.80 | — |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 14 | 3 | — | 21.4% | 5.8% | — | 3.85 | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 27 | 6 | 3 | 22.2% | 11.5% | 50.0% | 3.74 | 4.16 |
| UC Davis → | 13 | 7 | — | 53.8% | 13.5% | — | 3.83 | 4.05 |