Dougherty Valley High School
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California High School → Dublin High School → Amador Valley High School → Castro Valley High School → Foothill High → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-1.4%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~2,832 | -40 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~2,754 | -118 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~2,678 | -194 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Contra Costa County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Families who enroll at Dougherty Valley High School stay (97.9% stability — elite). But enrollment is dropping 2.7× the county rate (school -8.5% vs. county -3.2%). The audit question isn't why students leave — it's why fewer families are choosing to enroll in the first place.
66 of 3,075 students who enrolled at Dougherty Valley High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (2.1% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 4.1 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — San Ramon Valley Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 60.2%
Federal: 4.7%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the San Ramon Valley Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
+21.2 pp above peer median (41.9%) · Ranked #1 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
41.9%
53.3%
63.1%
Higher than 94% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Dougherty Valley High School's UC Reach of 63.1% clears the statewide top-10% cutoff (53.3%) — meaning roughly 63 top-6 UC admits per 100 seniors, well above what most California schools achieve.
In Contra Costa County — a competitive market where the median is already 25.6% — this still clears the county top-10% bar (58.5%).
Against similar schools, Dougherty Valley High School stands out clearly — the peer-group median is 41.9%.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 40 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Dougherty Valley High School's UC Reach is higher than 94% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
| Campus | Entered | Finished in 4 yrs | Finished in 6 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 56 | 91% | 100% |
| UC Davis | 33 | 91% | 94% |
| UC San Diego | 24 | 88% | 92% |
| UC Irvine | 21 | 90% | 95% |
| UC Riverside | 21 | 86% | 86% |
| UC Santa Cruz | 20 | 95% | 95% |
Dougherty Valley High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · San Ramon · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Dougherty Valley High School sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #1 of 11): 63% vs. a peer median of 42%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has slipped 15 points since 2018 — worth watching.
- ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, Dougherty Valley High School is admitting at roughly -6 percentage points below what its average applicant GPA (3.892) alone would predict (15% actual vs. 21% expected). That's worth understanding — it can reflect grade inflation that UC sees through, weaker holistic-review materials at the margin, or applicants concentrating at more selective campuses than typical. Not a verdict; a signal.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 8% (780→714 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +4%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-1.4%/yr), enrollment projects to ~2754 by 2029 — about 118 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 118 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dougherty Valley High School | Public | 2872 | 63.1% | -8% |
| Peer-group median | 41.9% | +4% | ||
| California High School | Public | 2796 | 46.5% | +14% |
| Dublin High School | Public | 2365 | 53.5% | +62% |
| Amador Valley High School | Public | 2556 | 53.7% | -3% |
| Castro Valley High School | Public | 2919 | 37.2% | -2% |
| Foothill High | Public | 2156 | 53.0% | +5% |
| San Ramon Valley High School | Public | 2128 | 26.5% | +10% |
| Monte Vista High School | Public | 1999 | 47.1% | -7% |
| James Logan High School | Public | 3054 | 22.7% | -22% |
| Granada High School | Public | 2144 | 26.6% | +17% |
| Heritage High School | Public | 2629 | 14.2% | +3% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.92 | 8.1% | 11.8% | -3.7pp | On target |
| UCLA | 3.92 | 7.6% | 9.0% | -1.4pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.90 | 12.8% | 22.2% | -9.4pp | Under |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.89 | 23.8% | 28.1% | -4.4pp | On target |
| UC Irvine | 3.87 | 16.8% | 21.8% | -5.0pp | Under |
| UC Davis | 3.86 | 21.9% | 32.1% | -10.2pp | Under |
Where Dougherty Valley High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants 5.8 points below what their GPAs predict (15.3% actual vs. 21.1% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 542 | 44 | 32 | 8.1% | 5.3% | 72.7% | 3.92 | 4.17 |
| UCLA → Elite | 555 | 42 | 21 | 7.6% | 5.0% | 50.0% | 3.92 | 4.18 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 578 | 74 | 24 | 12.8% | 8.8% | 32.4% | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 560 | 133 | 8 | 23.8% | 15.9% | 6.0% | 3.89 | 4.21 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 618 | 104 | 32 | 16.8% | 12.4% | 30.8% | 3.87 | 4.20 |
| UC Davis → | 598 | 131 | 42 | 21.9% | 15.7% | 32.1% | 3.86 | 4.11 |