Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent.
Edit the figure to match your school.
📊 Key takeaway · Class of 2024
Capistrano Valley Chrstn Sch sent 28 applications to the six most selective University of California campuses and 10.7% were admitted, producing a UC Reach of 4.2% — 14.4 percentage points below the California median of 18.6%, higher than 4% of California high schools..
University of California outcomes · Class of 2024
UC Reach
ⓘ
4%
3 admits / 71 seniors
5-year trend
2020 · 40.0%2024 · 4.2%
Where this sits on the California curve
CA median 18.6%
Top 10% 53.4%
This school 4.2%
0%50%100%
CA median 18.6%Top 10% ≥ 53.4%This school 4.2%
Higher than 4% of California high schools (1142 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
📊 What this number means
Capistrano Valley Chrstn Sch's UC Reach of 4.2% is below the California median (18.6%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.4% or higher.
But in Orange County, where the local median is 26.3% and the top-10% bar is 64.4%, this score is mid-pack rather than exceptional — typical of its market rather than a standout.
Overall, Capistrano Valley Chrstn Sch's UC Reach is higher than 4% of California high schools (1142 ranked).
UC Application Reach
ⓘ
39.4%
28 applications
In context:
CA median 79.7% · Top 10% statewide ≥ 243.8% · Orange Co. Top 10% ≥ 273.8% · higher than 18% of CA HS.
UC Admit Rate
ⓘ
10.7%
3 / 28 applications
In context:
CA median 26.6% · Top 10% statewide ≥ 39.9% · higher than 0% of CA HS.
UC Yield Rate
ⓘ
N/A
None enrolled of 3 admitted
Yield vs. Enrollment Reach:Yield answers "of UC admits, what % chose UC?" — denominator is just the admits. A small admitted cohort can post a low yield even when the school sends a healthy share of its class to UC.
UC Enrollment Reach
ⓘ
N/A
None enrollees / 71 seniors
Enrollment Reach vs. Yield:Reach answers "of the whole senior class, what % ended up at UC?" — denominator is everyone. High Yield with low Enrollment Reach is common at elite privates: most admits matriculate, but the school sends most of its class to non-UC selective colleges.
Selective UC Reach (UCSD, UCSB, UCI, UCD)
ⓘ
N/A
Elite UC Reach (UCB + UCLA)
ⓘ
N/A
Senior Class Size
ⓘ
71
Private School Affidavit
Total School Enrollment
ⓘ
687
All grades · Private School Affidavit
Private-school figures come from the California Private School Affidavit. Per CDE, inclusion in private-school data is not an evaluation, approval, or endorsement of a school.
Avg. Applicant GPA · top-6 UCs ⓘ
3.64
UC funnel — which kids are getting in at what GPA
Combining the school's applicant pool GPA, admit pool GPA, actual admit rate, and statewide CA admit rates by individual GPA band, we can read which GPA tiers tend to get in — and which don't.
🎯 Who's actually getting into UC from Capistrano Valley Chrstn Sch
Campus
4.00+ GPA
3.70–3.99 GPA
3.30–3.69 GPA
< 3.30 GPA
UC San Diego
Strong shot
Real shot
Long odds
Filtered out
UC Santa Barbara
Strong shot
Moderate
Long odds
Filtered out
UC Irvine
Strong shot
Real shot
Long odds
Filtered out
UC Davis
Strong shot
Real shot
Moderate
Filtered out
Strong shot = ≥30% statewide admit rate at this band ·
Real shot = 10–29% ·
Moderate = 5–9% ·
Long odds = 1–4% ·
Filtered out = under 1%.
Tiers map this school's likely outcomes by GPA tier using statewide CA admit rates from UCOP 2024.
The numbers behind it
Campus
Applicant GPA
Admit GPA
Lift
ⓘ
Admit rate
vs peer schools @ same GPA
ⓘ
UC San Diego (2021)
3.91
4.22
+0.31
31.8%
Peers +0.32 · matches
UC Santa Barbara (2021)
3.80
4.20
+0.40
26.3%
Peers +0.37 · matches
UC Irvine (2021)
3.84
4.06
+0.21
28.6%
Peers +0.33 · wider
UC Davis (2021)
3.85
4.02
+0.17
80.0%
Peers +0.29 · wider
📊 Statewide CA admit rates by individual GPA band, 2024 (for reference)
GPA band
UCB
UCLA
UCSD
UCSB
UCI
UCD
4.00+
17.1%
14.4%
43.5%
57.3%
46.0%
64.1%
3.70–3.99
2.8%
1.5%
11.2%
9.2%
16.5%
27.5%
3.30–3.69
0.8%
0.9%
1.4%
2.3%
3.4%
9.1%
3.00–3.29
0.5%
0.4%
0.1%
0.5%
0.4%
2.1%
< 3.00
0.6%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.3%
0.6%
How we infer the tier labels: Each tier comes from the statewide CA admit rate at that GPA band at that UC. The "vs peers" column compares this school's lift (admit GPA − applicant GPA) to the average lift at ~100–300 other CA schools with similar applicant pool GPA. What this isn't: a guarantee. UC comprehensive review weighs essays, course rigor, demographics, and context-of-opportunity beyond GPA. A 3.9 with strong context can land an admit; a 4.0 with weak essays can be denied. Use as a baseline expectation, not a verdict. Per-campus year is shown when it differs from the headline year (UCOP doesn't always publish admit-GPA for every campus every year).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2024
UC Admit Rate %
UC Reach % (where available)
UC Admits (count, right axis)
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment.
Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
⚠ Campus-level totals may count one student admitted to multiple UC campuses more than once.
Admit Volume metrics are not the same as UC Reach, which requires unique-student counts.
See methodology →
What This Means
A large share of the class applies to UC, so the admit rate runs lower than the application volume alone might suggest — expected when many students apply broadly, including to reach campuses. UC Reach (which credits every admit relative to the class) is the truer read of how the class fares: a strong Reach alongside a moderate admit rate is healthy, not a contradiction.
Fewer than 15% of seniors are earning UC admission. This may reflect a high non-UC college-going rate, significant A-G completion gaps, or an early-stage UC pipeline. A deeper review of A-G readiness and counseling capacity is warranted.
Note: admit counts used here are campus-level totals. A student admitted to both UCLA and UCSD is counted twice. When UCOP unique-student data becomes available it will be loaded automatically and the labels will update.
An Enrollment Trend Audit benchmarks your enrollment against nearby schools, shows who's gaining and losing families, and lays out a plan to make families choose you — built around the outcomes your families value. Built for principals, heads of school, and district leaders.