Canyon High School

• ▸On UC Reach, Canyon High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #4 of 11): 29% vs. a peer median of 24%.
• ▸Its UC Reach has slipped 8 points since 2018 — worth watching.
• ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, Canyon High School is admitting at roughly -5 percentage points below what its average applicant GPA (3.988) alone would predict (16% actual vs. 21% expected). That's worth understanding — it can reflect grade inflation that UC sees through, weaker holistic-review materials at the margin, or applicants concentrating at more selective campuses than typical. Not a verdict; a signal.
• ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 1% (572→566 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -8%.
• ▸In business terms, this is market-share growth during a market contraction. Orange County's senior population shrank 7% over the same window — Canyon High School only shrank 1%. So Canyon High School picked up about 6 percentage points of relative share — families chose it over the alternatives even as the overall pool got smaller. That's overperforming the market in a shrinking market.
• ▸At its recent rate (-0.1%/yr), enrollment projects to ~2238 by 2029 — about 3 fewer students than today.

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UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class. Sources: UCOP Admissions by Source School, CDE enrollment, IRS Form 990, NCES F-33. Test Prep Gurus Intelligence by Test Prep Gurus · Methodology

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