Blaker-Kinser Junior High

· Stanislaus County · Ceres Unified
Public Stanislaus County 🏛 Ceres Unified → CDS 5071043…
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Compare with peers

Most similar nearby schools

Mae Hensley Junior High → Stanislaus Alternative Charter → Aspire Vanguard College Preparatory Academy → Cesar Chavez Junior High → Mark Twain Junior High → Compare all similar →

No UC admissions data on file for Blaker-Kinser Junior High.

This school doesn't appear in UCOP's source-school records (it may send few or no applicants to UC). Its enrollment trend and similar-school comparison are still below.

Enrollment trend & projection

Total enrollment
671 (2018)583 (2026)
-13.1%

If this trend holds (-1.7%/yr, Total enrollment)

At per-pupil funding of $ / student:

Horizon Projected Total enrollment Change Funding impact / yr
1 yr (2027) ~573 -10 $0
3 yr (2029) ~553 -30 $0
5 yr (2031) ~534 -49 $0

Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.

Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25

Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Stanislaus County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.

Stability rate
88.0%
570 of 648 students

78 of 648 students who enrolled at Blaker-Kinser Junior High this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (12.0% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.

Stanislaus County median
89.4% · school is in the 42nd percentile of 55 HS
Statewide median
88.7% · in the 47th percentile of 2,648 HS

Stability by student group

Socio. disadvantaged (589) 87.4%
Hispanic / Latino (555) 89.2%
English learners (204) 82.4%
Students w/ disabilities (68) 77.9%
White (54) 75.9%
Asian (20) 95.0%

Nearest peer high schools

Mae Hensley Junior High 89.2% Stanislaus Alternative Charter 27.7% Aspire Vanguard College Preparatory Academy 90.8% Cesar Chavez Junior High 91.2% Mark Twain Junior High 100.0%

Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.

Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25

Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: total enrollment.

Chronic absent
18.9%
119 of 631 students

Absenteeism is up 9.9 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.

Stanislaus County median
18.7% · school is worse than 53% of 55 HS
Statewide median
20.9%
Chronic absenteeism by year (raw %)

Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).

District financial profile — Ceres Unified (FY2020)

From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.

Total revenue
$241.4M
+23.2% since FY2017
Per-pupil revenue
$16,938
14,251 students enrolled
Revenue mix
State: 72.7%
Local: 13.9%
Federal: 13.4%
Instruction share
49.8%
of current spending · $7,864/pupil
Long-term debt
$107.6M
-3.5% since FY2017
Total revenue by year ($M)
Total expenditure by year ($M)

Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Ceres Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).

Blaker-Kinser Junior High — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot

Public · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools

  • At its recent rate (-1.7%/yr), enrollment projects to ~553 by 2029 — about 30 fewer students than today.

Enrollment projection

583 students (2026)
~553 projected (2029)
at -1.7%/yr

That's about 30 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.

Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.

Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools

School Type Size UC Reach Enroll. trend
Blaker-Kinser Junior High Public 583
Peer-group median +191%
Mae Hensley Junior High Public 603
Stanislaus Alternative Charter Public 565 -69%
Aspire Vanguard College Preparatory Academy Public 654 +191%
Cesar Chavez Junior High Public 683
Mark Twain Junior High Public 672
Whitmore Charter School Of Art & Technology Public 455
La Loma Junior High Public 717
Aspire University Charter Public 428
Riverbank Language Academy Public 591
Connecting Waters Charter School - Central Valley Public 747 +1633%

UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →

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