Bella Vista High School
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Most similar nearby schools
Granite Bay High School → Cordova High School → Del Campo High School → Antelope High School → Rio Americano High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.5%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,900 | -9 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,882 | -27 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,864 | -45 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Sacramento County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Bella Vista High School's enrollment is tracking Sacramento County's baseline (+1.6% vs. +3.0%), and 88.9% stability is elite. The demographic tide is the headwind; you're holding your share. Chronic absenteeism is rising (25.8%, +11.6 pts since 2016-17) — a watch signal worth monitoring as a leading indicator.
224 of 2,025 students who enrolled at Bella Vista High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (11.1% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 11.6 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — San Juan Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 32.8%
Federal: 11.2%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the San Juan Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
-6.0 pp vs. peer median (20.3%) · Ranked #6 of 10 similar schools
18.5%
53.3%
14.3%
Higher than 39% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Bella Vista High School's UC Reach of 14.3% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, Bella Vista High School's UC Reach is higher than 39% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Bella Vista High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Fair Oaks · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Bella Vista High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #6 of 10): 14% vs. a peer median of 20%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 2 points since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 2% (443→450 from 2018 to 2026), tracking the peer-group median of -0%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.5%/yr), enrollment projects to ~1882 by 2029 — about 27 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 27 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bella Vista High School | Public | 1909 | 14.3% | +2% |
| Peer-group median | 20.3% | -0% | ||
| Granite Bay High School | Public | 2064 | 39.1% | -2% |
| Cordova High School | Public | 2043 | 7.8% | +11% |
| Del Campo High School | Public | 1531 | 7.7% | -4% |
| Antelope High School | Public | 1781 | 14.3% | +1% |
| Rio Americano High School | Public | 1930 | 22.8% | +25% |
| Vista Del Lago High | Public | 1861 | 41.3% | +11% |
| Woodcreek High School | Public | 1969 | 13.4% | -8% |
| Mira Loma High School | Public | 1679 | 45.4% | -5% |
| John Adams Academy - Roseville | Public | 1630 | — | +11% |
| Rocklin High School | Public | 1861 | 20.3% | -9% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 4.04 | 15.2% | 13.3% | +1.9pp | On target |
| UCLA | 3.95 | 20.6% | 9.1% | +11.5pp | Over |
| UC San Diego | 3.95 | 23.1% | 21.1% | +2.0pp | On target |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.93 | 37.5% | 29.5% | +8.0pp | Over |
| UC Irvine | 3.96 | 14.3% | 24.9% | -10.6pp | Under |
| UC Davis | 3.91 | 44.3% | 32.3% | +11.9pp | Over |
Where Bella Vista High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (27.8% actual vs. 22.9% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 33 | 5 | — | 15.2% | 1.1% | — | 4.04 | 4.34 |
| UCLA → Elite | 34 | 7 | 4 | 20.6% | 1.5% | 57.1% | 3.95 | 4.34 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 39 | 9 | 3 | 23.1% | 2.0% | 33.3% | 3.95 | 4.31 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 32 | 12 | 4 | 37.5% | 2.6% | 33.3% | 3.93 | 4.27 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 35 | 5 | — | 14.3% | 1.1% | — | 3.96 | 4.27 |
| UC Davis → | 61 | 27 | 7 | 44.3% | 5.9% | 25.9% | 3.91 | 4.22 |