Arroyo Grande High School
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Most similar nearby schools
San Luis Obispo High School → Ernest Righetti High School → Pioneer Valley High School → Santa Maria High School → Nipomo High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.8%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,923 | -16 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,892 | -47 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,861 | -78 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the San Luis Obispo County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Families who enroll at Arroyo Grande High School stay (91.3% stability — elite). But enrollment is dropping 6.3× the county rate (school -8.8% vs. county -1.4%). The audit question isn't why students leave — it's why fewer families are choosing to enroll in the first place.
182 of 2,096 students who enrolled at Arroyo Grande High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (8.7% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 6.6 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Lucia Mar Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 62.3%
Federal: 10.4%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Lucia Mar Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
+4.9 pp above peer median (14.3%) · Ranked #4 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
14.3%
53.3%
19.2%
Higher than 53% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Arroyo Grande High School's UC Reach of 19.2% is above the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 84 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Arroyo Grande High School's UC Reach is higher than 53% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Arroyo Grande High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Arroyo Grande · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Arroyo Grande High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #4 of 11): 19% vs. a peer median of 14%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has slipped 3 points since 2018 — worth watching.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 9% (522→476 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +12%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.8%/yr), enrollment projects to ~1892 by 2029 — about 47 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 47 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arroyo Grande High School | Public | 1939 | 19.2% | -9% |
| Peer-group median | 14.3% | +12% | ||
| San Luis Obispo High School | Public | 1693 | 35.6% | +12% |
| Ernest Righetti High School | Public | 2472 | 13.7% | +24% |
| Pioneer Valley High School | Public | 3011 | 15.0% | +16% |
| Santa Maria High School | Public | 3094 | 15.0% | +21% |
| Nipomo High School | Public | 833 | 8.9% | +3% |
| Paso Robles High School | Public | 1962 | 13.6% | -8% |
| San Marcos Senior High | Public | 1941 | 33.6% | -12% |
| Atascadero High School | Public | 1146 | 8.5% | -4% |
| Lompoc High School | Public | 1520 | 11.5% | +13% |
| Orcutt Academy Charter High School | Public | 796 | 32.5% | +22% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 4.14 | 11.1% | 15.7% | -4.6pp | On target |
| UCLA | 4.10 | 12.7% | 9.8% | +2.9pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 4.05 | 16.7% | 19.0% | -2.3pp | On target |
| UC Santa Barbara | 4.01 | 33.8% | 33.5% | +0.3pp | On target |
| UC Irvine | 3.99 | 44.8% | 26.1% | +18.7pp | Over |
| UC Davis | 4.01 | 46.4% | 32.9% | +13.5pp | Over |
Where Arroyo Grande High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (27.9% actual vs. 23.4% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 54 | 6 | 5 | 11.1% | 1.1% | 83.3% | 4.14 | 4.29 |
| UCLA → Elite | 55 | 7 | — | 12.7% | 1.3% | — | 4.10 | 4.29 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 66 | 11 | 3 | 16.7% | 2.1% | 27.3% | 4.05 | 4.28 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 77 | 26 | 7 | 33.8% | 4.9% | 26.9% | 4.01 | 4.29 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 58 | 26 | 4 | 44.8% | 4.9% | 15.4% | 3.99 | 4.21 |
| UC Davis → | 56 | 26 | 7 | 46.4% | 4.9% | 26.9% | 4.01 | 4.22 |