WATER VALLEY SCHOOL
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -4.4%/year, projecting from 2024's 297 students:
≈ 60 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $19,834 per student in district revenue, the 60 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $1,190,040/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN ANGELO STATE SCHOOL WATER VALLEY |
Public | 0.1 | 4 | — |
| GRAPE CREEK H S SAN ANGELO |
Public | 12.3 | 334 | +7.4% |
| LAKE VIEW H S SAN ANGELO |
Public | 19.7 | 1,072 | -0.2% |
| STERLING CITY SCHOOL STERLING CITY |
Public | 19.9 | 121 | +21.0% |
| TEXAS LEADERSHIP OF SAN ANGELO SAN ANGELO |
Public · charter | 20.3 | 415 | +19.6% |
| Cornerstone Christian School San Angelo |
Private | 20.3 | 191 | +44.7% |
| CARVER ALTER LRN CTR SAN ANGELO |
Public | 21.1 | 19 | — |
| ROBERT LEE SCHOOL ROBERT LEE |
Public | 21.2 | 80 | +11.1% |