MERKEL H S
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -4.9%/year, projecting from 2024's 281 students:
≈ 63 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $13,213 per student in district revenue, the 63 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $832,419/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRENT INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT TRENT |
Public | 6.6 | 32 | — |
| WYLIE H S ABILENE |
Public | 15.4 | 1,537 | +13.2% |
| HAWLEY CENTER FOR ACCELERATED LEARNING HAWLEY |
Public | 15.7 | 6 | — |
| ABILENE H S ABILENE |
Public | 15.7 | 1,798 | -11.3% |
| PREMIER H S OF ABILENE ABILENE |
Public · charter | 15.7 | 176 | +11.4% |
| TEXASWORKS - ABILENE ABILENE |
Public · charter | 15.7 | 36 | — |
| HAWLEY H S HAWLEY |
Public | 15.8 | 216 | -3.1% |
| TEXAS LEADERSHIP OF ABILENE ABILENE |
Public · charter | 16.4 | 195 | +200.0% |