FROST SECONDARY
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -2.8%/year, projecting from 2024's 215 students:
≈ 28 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $15,060 per student in district revenue, the 28 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $421,680/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLOOMING GROVE H S BLOOMING GROVE |
Public | 5.8 | 288 | +4.7% |
| ITALY H S ITALY |
Public | 8.0 | 177 | -14.1% |
| MILFORD SCHOOL MILFORD |
Public | 8.6 | 91 | +23.0% |
| AVALON SCHOOL AVALON |
Public | 8.8 | 94 | +13.3% |
| BYNUM SCHOOL BYNUM |
Public | 13.5 | 60 | +17.6% |
| DAWSON PK-12 DAWSON |
Public | 13.9 | 200 | +25.8% |
| PENELOPE SCHOOL PENELOPE |
Public | 16.6 | 62 | -6.1% |
| HUBBARD H S HUBBARD |
Public | 16.9 | 116 | -10.1% |