COLORADO RIVER COLLEGIATE ACADEMY
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -7.6%/year, projecting from 2024's 190 students:
≈ 62 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $12,602 per student in district revenue, the 62 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $781,324/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GENESIS H S BASTROP |
Public | 0.0 | 185 | +43.4% |
| BASTROP H S BASTROP |
Public | 0.2 | 1,767 | +13.1% |
| CEDAR CREEK H S CEDAR CREEK |
Public | 9.4 | 2,144 | +13.5% |
| SMITHVILLE H S SMITHVILLE |
Public | 12.2 | 543 | -4.7% |
| MCDADE H S MCDADE |
Public | 12.3 | 111 | +54.2% |
| ELGIN H S ELGIN |
Public | 18.0 | 1,771 | +14.8% |
| PHOENIX H S ELGIN |
Public | 18.0 | 50 | — |
| DEL VALLE OPPORTUNITY CTR DEL VALLE |
Public | 18.2 | 228 | +34.1% |