BILLY MOORE
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -7.9%/year, projecting from 2024's 140 students:
≈ 47 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $9,723 per student in district revenue, the 47 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $456,981/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERETTS CHAPEL H S OVERTON |
Public | 2.6 | 72 | +0.0% |
| OVERTON H S OVERTON |
Public | 3.0 | 155 | +29.2% |
| WEST RUSK H S NEW LONDON |
Public | 5.5 | 356 | +4.7% |
| KILGORE H S KILGORE |
Public | 7.5 | 1,167 | +0.3% |
| ARP H S ARP |
Public | 8.1 | 308 | +17.1% |
| SABINE H S GLADEWATER |
Public | 9.0 | 456 | +0.2% |
| CARLISLE SCHOOL HENDERSON |
Public | 12.6 | 185 | +12.8% |
| CHAPEL HILL H S TYLER |
Public | 13.1 | 990 | -7.0% |