TRINITY CHARTER SCHOOL - BRENHAM CAMPUS
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -9.4%/year, projecting from 2024's 35 students:
≈ 14 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $21,940 per student in district revenue, the 14 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $307,160/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRENHAM H S BRENHAM |
Public | 4.3 | 1,544 | -0.8% |
| BURTON H S BURTON |
Public | 13.2 | 152 | +5.6% |
| SPICER ALTER ED CTR BELLVILLE |
Public | 13.8 | — | — |
| BELLVILLE H S BELLVILLE |
Public | 15.8 | 786 | +15.2% |
| ROUND TOP-CARMINE H S CARMINE |
Public | 17.5 | 71 | +12.7% |
| SOMERVILLE H S SOMERVILLE |
Public | 17.6 | 168 | +14.3% |
| HEMPSTEAD H S HEMPSTEAD |
Public | 18.9 | 462 | +4.5% |
| SAFE HAVEN HEMPSTEAD |
Public · charter | 20.3 | 4 | — |