Enrollment & Outcomes Scorecard
Thomas Downey High School
Public · Modesto · Stanislaus County · 2,180 students · Class of 2025
UC Reach · Class of 2025
9%
Higher than 15% of California high schools
-4.0 pp vs. peer median (13.1%)
· Ranked #10 of 10 similar schools
5-year UC Reach
2021 · 6.0%
2025 · 9.1%
+28%
Senior-class enrollment (2018–2026)
+25.5 pp
vs. Stanislaus County baseline (+2%)
~2212
5-yr projected enrollment (+0.5%/yr)
- ▸On UC Reach, Thomas Downey High School sits near the bottom of its similar-school group (ranked #10 of 10): 9% vs. a peer median of 13%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 4 points since 2018.
- ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, Thomas Downey High School is admitting at roughly +12 percentage points above what its average applicant GPA (3.837) alone would predict (35% actual vs. 23% expected). That's a meaningful signal — it can reflect UC's track record with this school's graduates, students presenting strongly in UC's holistic review (essays, EC's, context), or institutional familiarity helping at the margin. The data can't distinguish which, but the pattern itself is real and worth understanding.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 28% (453→579 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of +5%.
- ▸Enrollment has been growing (+0.5%/yr); projects to ~2212 by 2029.
Most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | UC Reach | Enroll. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modesto High School | Public | 13.1% | +4% |
| James C Enochs High School | Public | 25.9% | -2% |
| Grace M Davis High School | Public | 11.7% | +7% |
| Peter Johansen High | Public | — | +20% |
| Central Valley High School | Public | 11.1% | +38% |
| Fred C Beyer High School | Public | 11.6% | +2% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class. Sources: UCOP Admissions by Source School, CDE enrollment, IRS Form 990, NCES F-33. Test Prep Gurus Intelligence by Test Prep Gurus · Methodology
Scan for full profile