Temescal Canyon High School
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Most similar nearby schools
Lakeside High School → Orange Vista High School → Elsinore High School → Paloma Valley High School → Murrieta Valley High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (+0.3%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~2,305 | +7 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~2,321 | +23 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~2,336 | +38 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Riverside County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Families who enroll at Temescal Canyon High School stay (89.2% stability — elite). But enrollment is dropping 1.9× the county rate (school -5.1% vs. county -2.7%). The audit question isn't why students leave — it's why fewer families are choosing to enroll in the first place.
269 of 2,480 students who enrolled at Temescal Canyon High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (10.8% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 10.6 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Lake Elsinore Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 24.5%
Federal: 10.8%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Lake Elsinore Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
On the peer median (13.7%) · Ranked #7 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
13.7%
53.3%
13.3%
Higher than 34% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Temescal Canyon High School's UC Reach of 13.3% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, Temescal Canyon High School's UC Reach is higher than 34% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Temescal Canyon High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Lake Elsinore · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Temescal Canyon High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #7 of 11): 13% vs. a peer median of 14%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 2 points since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 5% (528→501 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -12%.
- ▸Enrollment has been growing (+0.3%/yr); projects to ~2321 by 2029.
Enrollment projection
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temescal Canyon High School | Public | 2298 | 13.3% | -5% |
| Peer-group median | 13.7% | -12% | ||
| Lakeside High School | Public | 1671 | 9.4% | +0% |
| Orange Vista High School | Public | 2332 | 20.3% | +25% |
| Elsinore High School | Public | 1938 | 10.1% | -4% |
| Paloma Valley High School | Public | 2639 | 11.7% | -17% |
| Murrieta Valley High School | Public | 2174 | 17.5% | -11% |
| Perris High School | Public | 1985 | 10.3% | -17% |
| Heritage High | Public | 2396 | 14.0% | -16% |
| Liberty High | Public | 2476 | 19.2% | +34% |
| Murrieta Mesa High School | Public | 2026 | 13.4% | -12% |
| Rancho Verde High School | Public | 2091 | 22.5% | -37% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.95 | 13.5% | 12.0% | +1.5pp | On target |
| UCLA | 3.90 | 9.8% | 9.0% | +0.9pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.87 | 21.6% | 23.1% | -1.5pp | On target |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.86 | 36.1% | 27.4% | +8.7pp | Over |
| UC Irvine | 3.86 | 29.1% | 21.6% | +7.5pp | Over |
| UC Davis | 3.89 | 47.4% | 32.2% | +15.1pp | Over |
Where Temescal Canyon High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (23.5% actual vs. 19.6% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 37 | 5 | — | 13.5% | 0.9% | — | 3.95 | 4.19 |
| UCLA → Elite | 61 | 6 | 6 | 9.8% | 1.1% | 100.0% | 3.90 | 4.26 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 74 | 16 | 5 | 21.6% | 3.0% | 31.2% | 3.87 | 4.18 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 36 | 13 | — | 36.1% | 2.4% | — | 3.86 | 4.22 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 79 | 23 | 8 | 29.1% | 4.3% | 34.8% | 3.86 | 4.17 |
| UC Davis → | 19 | 9 | 6 | 47.4% | 1.7% | 66.7% | 3.89 | 4.07 |