Portola Junior/Senior High
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Quincy Junior/Senior High → Loyalton High School → Plumas Charter School → Mt. Lassen Charter → American River Charter → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-1.1%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~236 | -3 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~231 | -8 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~226 | -13 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Plumas County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
On the surface Portola Junior/Senior High looks fine — enrollment is +16.1% vs. Plumas County +10.8%, and 87.7% of students stay through year-end. But <strong>chronic absenteeism is at 37.4%, up +12.6 pts since 2016-17 (county median 28.7%). Disengagement leads departure — families pull back from the day-to-day before they formally leave. The demand signal usually follows within 2–3 years.
22 of 179 students who enrolled at Portola Junior/Senior High this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (12.3% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 13.5 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Plumas Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 71.1%
Federal: 11.3%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Plumas Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
+5.3 pp above peer median (7.2%) · Ranked #1 of 5 similar schools
18.5%
7.2%
53.3%
12.5%
Higher than 30% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Portola Junior/Senior High's UC Reach of 12.5% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, Portola Junior/Senior High's UC Reach is higher than 30% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Portola Junior/Senior High — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Portola Junior/Senior High sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #1 of 5): 12% vs. a peer median of 7%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has slipped 8 points since 2022 — worth watching.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 16% (31→36 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -2%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-1.1%/yr), enrollment projects to ~231 by 2029 — about 8 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 8 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portola Junior/Senior High | Public | 239 | 12.5% | +16% |
| Peer-group median | 7.2% | -2% | ||
| Quincy Junior/Senior High | Public | 310 | 7.4% | +12% |
| Loyalton High School | Public | 106 | — | +43% |
| Plumas Charter School | Public | 141 | — | -19% |
| Mt. Lassen Charter | Public | 147 | — | +57% |
| American River Charter | Public | 274 | — | +186% |
| Core Charter School | Public | 206 | — | -12% |
| Foresthill High School | Public | 204 | 7.1% | +5% |
| Forest Charter School | Public | 284 | 5.0% | -9% |
| Inspire School Of Arts And Sciences | Public | 299 | 12.5% | -18% |
| Biggs High School | Public | 177 | — | -25% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
UC Outcomes Trend — 2022–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Davis → | 10 | 5 | — | 50.0% | 12.5% | — | — | — |