Otay Ranch High School
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Most similar nearby schools
Olympian High School → Eastlake High School → Bonita Vista High School → Sweetwater High → San Ysidro High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.1%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~2,405 | -3 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~2,400 | -8 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~2,395 | -13 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the San Diego County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Otay Ranch High School's enrollment is tracking San Diego County's baseline (-7.1% vs. -7.8%), and 91.1% stability is elite. The demographic tide is the headwind; you're holding your share.
229 of 2,584 students who enrolled at Otay Ranch High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (8.9% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 7.4 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Sweetwater Union High (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 32.0%
Federal: 9.1%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Sweetwater Union High as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
On the peer median (21.1%) · Ranked #5 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
53.3%
22.0%
Higher than 59% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Otay Ranch High School's UC Reach of 22.0% is above the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 81 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Otay Ranch High School's UC Reach is higher than 59% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Otay Ranch High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Chula Vista · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Otay Ranch High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #5 of 11): 22% vs. a peer median of 21%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has held roughly steady since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 7% (693→644 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -21%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.1%/yr), enrollment projects to ~2400 by 2029 — about 8 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 8 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otay Ranch High School | Public | 2408 | 22.0% | -7% |
| Peer-group median | 21.1% | -21% | ||
| Olympian High School | Public | 2216 | 30.3% | -18% |
| Eastlake High School | Public | 2585 | 21.3% | -30% |
| Bonita Vista High School | Public | 2038 | 29.4% | -23% |
| Sweetwater High | Public | 2170 | 15.2% | -25% |
| San Ysidro High School | Public | 1816 | 23.3% | -29% |
| Steele Canyon High School | Public | 2237 | 14.7% | -2% |
| Hilltop High School | Public | 1748 | 20.9% | -19% |
| Chula Vista Senior High School | Public | 1806 | 15.0% | -19% |
| Chula Vista Senior High | Public | 1806 | 19.4% | -34% |
| Helix High School | Public | 2571 | 26.9% | +2% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 4.05 | 12.6% | 13.5% | -0.8pp | On target |
| UCLA | 4.04 | 7.6% | 9.4% | -1.8pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.99 | 22.2% | 20.2% | +1.9pp | On target |
| UC Santa Barbara | 4.00 | 30.0% | 32.7% | -2.7pp | On target |
| UC Irvine | 3.99 | 23.2% | 25.9% | -2.7pp | On target |
| UC Davis | 3.91 | 30.6% | 32.3% | -1.7pp | On target |
Where Otay Ranch High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (20.3% actual vs. 21.3% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 87 | 11 | 7 | 12.6% | 1.7% | 63.6% | 4.05 | 4.30 |
| UCLA → Elite | 132 | 10 | 5 | 7.6% | 1.5% | 50.0% | 4.04 | 4.32 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 185 | 41 | 20 | 22.2% | 6.3% | 48.8% | 3.99 | 4.29 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 80 | 24 | 3 | 30.0% | 3.7% | 12.5% | 4.00 | 4.31 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 155 | 36 | 6 | 23.2% | 5.5% | 16.7% | 3.99 | 4.31 |
| UC Davis → | 72 | 22 | 3 | 30.6% | 3.4% | 13.6% | 3.91 | 4.28 |