Ontario High School
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Chino High School → Colony High School → Claremont High School → Bonita High School → Montclair High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-2.5%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,900 | -49 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,806 | -143 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,717 | -232 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the San Bernardino County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Ontario High School's enrollment is shrinking far faster than San Bernardino County (school -10.0% vs. county +0.0%). Stability of 86.3% means every family you keep is one fewer; the leverage is at recruitment, not retention. This is the case the high stability number alone would hide. Chronic absenteeism is also at 32.5% (up +22.3 pts from 2016-17) — engagement and demand are both signaling decline.
295 of 2,154 students who enrolled at Ontario High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (13.7% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 22.3 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Chaffey Joint Union High (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 30.3%
Federal: 8.4%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Chaffey Joint Union High as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
-3.9 pp vs. peer median (13.6%) · Ranked #10 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
13.6%
53.3%
9.7%
Higher than 18% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Ontario High School's UC Reach of 9.7% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, Ontario High School's UC Reach is higher than 18% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Ontario High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Ontario · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Ontario High School sits near the bottom of its similar-school group (ranked #10 of 11): 10% vs. a peer median of 14%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has slipped 4 points since 2018 — worth watching.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 10% (568→511 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of -0%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-2.5%/yr), enrollment projects to ~1806 by 2029 — about 143 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 143 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ontario High School | Public | 1949 | 9.7% | -10% |
| Peer-group median | 13.6% | -0% | ||
| Chino High School | Public | 2224 | 14.7% | +1% |
| Colony High School | Public | 2030 | 12.1% | +7% |
| Claremont High School | Public | 2018 | 31.4% | -17% |
| Bonita High School | Public | 1922 | 26.6% | +0% |
| Montclair High School | Public | 2588 | 12.5% | -1% |
| Ruben S Ayala High School | Public | 2564 | 44.8% | -6% |
| Alta Loma High School | Public | 2464 | 10.7% | +8% |
| Norco High School | Public | 1982 | 9.3% | +1% |
| Garey High School | Public | 1423 | 12.5% | -22% |
| Diamond Ranch High School | Public | 1518 | 19.1% | -3% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.83 | 9.1% | 11.7% | -2.6pp | On target |
| UCLA | 3.85 | 7.3% | 8.9% | -1.7pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.71 | 26.3% | 27.9% | -1.6pp | On target |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.55 | 56.0% | 31.3% | +24.7pp | Over |
| UC Irvine | 3.84 | 21.0% | 21.0% | 0.0pp | On target |
Where Ontario High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (20.7% actual vs. 18.9% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 33 | 3 | — | 9.1% | 0.7% | — | 3.83 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 55 | 4 | — | 7.3% | 0.9% | — | 3.85 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 38 | 10 | — | 26.3% | 2.2% | — | 3.71 | 4.22 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 25 | 14 | 4 | 56.0% | 3.1% | 28.6% | 3.55 | 3.81 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 62 | 13 | — | 21.0% | 2.9% | — | 3.84 | 4.24 |
| UC Davis → | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | — |