Nogales High School
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Most similar nearby schools
Glen a Wilson High School → South Hills High School → Los Altos High School → Diamond Ranch High School → Brea Olinda High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-3.4%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,419 | -49 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,325 | -143 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,237 | -231 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Los Angeles County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Enrollment down 12.9% vs. county -8.2%, AND stability (84.9%) below the county median. Fewer families are choosing the school, and the ones who do aren't staying through year-end.
249 of 1,654 students who enrolled at Nogales High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (15.1% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 10.7 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Rowland Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 22.2%
Federal: 15.4%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Rowland Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
-2.7 pp vs. peer median (18.2%) · Ranked #8 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
53.3%
15.5%
Higher than 43% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Nogales High School's UC Reach of 15.5% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, Nogales High School's UC Reach is higher than 43% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Nogales High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · La Puente · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Nogales High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #8 of 11): 16% vs. a peer median of 18%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 6 points since 2018.
- ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, Nogales High School is admitting at roughly -5 percentage points below what its average applicant GPA (3.58) alone would predict (17% actual vs. 22% expected). That's worth understanding — it can reflect grade inflation that UC sees through, weaker holistic-review materials at the margin, or applicants concentrating at more selective campuses than typical. Not a verdict; a signal.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 13% (472→411 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of -9%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-3.4%/yr), enrollment projects to ~1325 by 2029 — about 143 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 143 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nogales High School | Public | 1468 | 15.5% | -13% |
| Peer-group median | 18.2% | -9% | ||
| Glen a Wilson High School | Public | 1534 | 31.8% | -3% |
| South Hills High School | Public | 1625 | 18.8% | -1% |
| Los Altos High School | Public | 1586 | 12.0% | -20% |
| Diamond Ranch High School | Public | 1518 | 19.1% | -3% |
| Brea Olinda High School | Public | 1664 | 32.7% | -8% |
| Baldwin Park High School | Public | 1344 | 9.7% | -17% |
| West Covina High School | Public | 1797 | 17.6% | -18% |
| Sierra Vista High School | Public | 1551 | 23.2% | -10% |
| Garey High School | Public | 1423 | 12.5% | -22% |
| Azusa High School | Public | 1535 | 17.5% | +34% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.73 | 9.7% | 12.7% | -3.0pp | On target |
| UCLA | 3.67 | 8.5% | 9.5% | -1.0pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.54 | 19.5% | 34.0% | -14.5pp | Under |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.46 | 33.3% | 36.4% | -3.1pp | On target |
| UC Irvine | 3.58 | 19.4% | 16.1% | +3.2pp | On target |
| UC Davis | 3.42 | 14.3% | 34.3% | -20.0pp | Under |
Where Nogales High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants 5.1 points below what their GPAs predict (17.2% actual vs. 22.2% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 31 | 3 | — | 9.7% | 0.8% | — | 3.73 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 71 | 6 | 4 | 8.5% | 1.6% | 66.7% | 3.67 | 4.18 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 82 | 16 | 4 | 19.5% | 4.3% | 25.0% | 3.54 | 4.09 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 33 | 11 | 4 | 33.3% | 2.9% | 36.4% | 3.46 | 3.89 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 93 | 18 | 9 | 19.4% | 4.8% | 50.0% | 3.58 | 4.10 |
| UC Davis → | 28 | 4 | — | 14.3% | 1.1% | — | 3.42 | — |