Enrollment & Outcomes Scorecard
El Toro High School
Public · Lake Forest · Orange County · 1,849 students · Class of 2025
UC Reach · Class of 2025
10%
Higher than 20% of California high schools
-24.6 pp vs. peer median (35.0%)
· Ranked #11 of 11 similar schools
5-year UC Reach
2021 · 14.0%
2025 · 10.4%
-25%
Senior-class enrollment (2018–2026)
-18.1 pp
vs. Orange County baseline (-7%)
~1667
5-yr projected enrollment (182 fewer than today)
- ▸On UC Reach, El Toro High School sits near the bottom of its similar-school group (ranked #11 of 11): 10% vs. a peer median of 35%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has slipped 3 points since 2018 — worth watching.
- ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, El Toro High School is admitting at roughly -8 percentage points below what its average applicant GPA (3.845) alone would predict (14% actual vs. 21% expected). That's worth understanding — it can reflect grade inflation that UC sees through, weaker holistic-review materials at the margin, or applicants concentrating at more selective campuses than typical. Not a verdict; a signal.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 25% (604→452 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of -12%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-3.4%/yr), enrollment projects to ~1667 by 2029 — about 182 fewer students than today.
Most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | UC Reach | Enroll. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mission Viejo High School | Public | 15.2% | -40% |
| Tesoro High School | Public | 31.5% | -24% |
| Irvine High School | Public | 43.0% | -14% |
| Capistrano Valley High School | Public | 35.5% | -9% |
| Trabuco Hills High School | Public | 23.3% | -14% |
| Woodbridge High School | Public | 45.9% | -8% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class. Sources: UCOP Admissions by Source School, CDE enrollment, IRS Form 990, NCES F-33. Test Prep Gurus Intelligence by Test Prep Gurus · Methodology
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