Central Valley High
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Redding School Of The Arts → Shasta View Academy → University Preparatory School → Anderson High → Enterprise High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.2%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~597 | -1 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~594 | -4 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~591 | -7 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Shasta County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Central Valley High's enrollment is tracking Shasta County's baseline (+10.4% vs. +12.3%), and 82.3% stability is elite. The demographic tide is the headwind; you're holding your share. Chronic absenteeism is rising (24.6%, +6.5 pts since 2016-17) — a watch signal worth monitoring as a leading indicator.
112 of 631 students who enrolled at Central Valley High this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (17.7% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 6.5 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Gateway Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 46.3%
Federal: 17.8%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Gateway Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
-3.6 pp vs. peer median (6.5%) · Ranked #5 of 5 similar schools
18.6%
6.5%
53.4%
2.9%
Higher than 2% of California high schools (1142 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Central Valley High's UC Reach of 2.9% is below the California median (18.6%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.4% or higher.
Overall, Central Valley High's UC Reach is higher than 2% of California high schools (1142 ranked).
Central Valley High — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Central Valley High sits near the bottom of its similar-school group (ranked #5 of 5): 3% vs. a peer median of 6%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has held roughly steady since 2021.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 10% (125→138 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +14%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.2%/yr), enrollment projects to ~594 by 2029 — about 4 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 4 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Valley High | Public | 598 | 2.9% | +10% |
| Peer-group median | 6.5% | +14% | ||
| Redding School Of The Arts | Public | 664 | — | +29% |
| Shasta View Academy | Public | 538 | — | +15% |
| University Preparatory School | Public | 1004 | 34.7% | +24% |
| Anderson High | Public | 497 | — | -15% |
| Enterprise High School | Public | 1123 | 4.8% | +23% |
| Phoenix Charter Academy College View | Public | 262 | — | -19% |
| Shasta High School | Public | 1267 | 8.2% | +13% |
| Shasta Charter Academy | Public | 280 | 3.8% | -16% |
| West Valley Early College High | Public | 766 | — | -22% |
| Redding Collegiate Academy | Public | 229 | — | +343% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
UC Outcomes Trend — 2021–2024
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2024
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Irvine → Selective | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UC Davis → | 5 | 4 | — | 80.0% | 2.9% | — | — | — |