Centennial High School
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Liberty High School → Frontier High School → West High School → Stockdale High School → North High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (+1.7%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~2,350 | +39 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~2,429 | +118 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~2,511 | +200 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Kern County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Families who enroll at Centennial High School stay (89.9% stability — elite). But enrollment is dropping faster than Kern County (school +3.7% vs. county +12.7%). The audit question isn't why students leave — it's why fewer families are choosing to enroll in the first place.
237 of 2,353 students who enrolled at Centennial High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (10.1% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Low and stable absenteeism — students are engaged and showing up. The leading indicator is healthy.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Kern High (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 25.3%
Federal: 12.7%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Kern High as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
On the peer median (8.8%) · Ranked #5 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
8.8%
53.3%
9.4%
Higher than 16% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Centennial High School's UC Reach of 9.4% is below the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
Overall, Centennial High School's UC Reach is higher than 16% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Centennial High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Bakersfield · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Centennial High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #5 of 11): 9% vs. a peer median of 9%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has held roughly steady since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 4% (519→538 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +9%.
- ▸Enrollment has been growing (+1.7%/yr); projects to ~2429 by 2029.
Enrollment projection
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centennial High School | Public | 2311 | 9.4% | +4% |
| Peer-group median | 8.8% | +9% | ||
| Liberty High School | Public | 2413 | 10.6% | +26% |
| Frontier High School | Public | 2098 | 8.5% | -12% |
| West High School | Public | 2188 | 9.2% | +8% |
| Stockdale High School | Public | 2366 | 25.3% | +8% |
| North High School | Public | 2112 | 5.4% | +36% |
| East Bakersfield High School | Public | 2215 | 8.4% | +5% |
| Independence High | Public | 2415 | 7.8% | +18% |
| South High School | Public | 2092 | 11.5% | +6% |
| Bakersfield High School | Public | 2990 | 5.6% | +21% |
| Ridgeview High School | Public | 2530 | 12.3% | +9% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego | 3.86 | 13.5% | 23.4% | -9.9pp | Under |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.86 | 31.1% | 27.5% | +3.6pp | On target |
| UC Irvine | 3.93 | 44.7% | 24.0% | +20.7pp | Over |
| UC Davis | 3.90 | 40.0% | 32.3% | +7.7pp | Over |
Where Centennial High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (30.8% actual vs. 26.0% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 52 | 7 | — | 13.5% | 1.3% | — | 3.86 | 4.29 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 45 | 14 | 5 | 31.1% | 2.5% | 35.7% | 3.86 | 4.26 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 47 | 21 | 13 | 44.7% | 3.8% | 61.9% | 3.93 | 4.16 |
| UC Davis → | 25 | 10 | — | 40.0% | 1.8% | — | 3.90 | 4.18 |