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Servite High School → Crean Lutheran High School → Orange Lutheran High School → Newport Christian School → Saint John Bosco High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-3.0%/yr, Total enrollment)
At tuition of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Tuition impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2026) | ~814 | -25 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2028) | ~765 | -74 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2030) | ~719 | -120 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Edit the figure to match your school.
-9.1 pp vs. peer median (36.7%) · Ranked #7 of 8 similar schools
18.5%
36.7%
53.3%
27.6%
Higher than 69% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Calvary Chapel High School's UC Reach of 27.6% is above the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 75 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Calvary Chapel High School's UC Reach is higher than 69% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Private-school figures come from the California Private School Affidavit. Per CDE, inclusion in private-school data is not an evaluation, approval, or endorsement of a school.
Calvary Chapel High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Private · Other religious · Santa Ana · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Calvary Chapel High School sits near the bottom of its similar-school group (ranked #7 of 8): 28% vs. a peer median of 37%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 8 points since 2020.
- ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, Calvary Chapel High School is admitting at roughly +5 percentage points above what its average applicant GPA (4.048) alone would predict (30% actual vs. 24% expected). That's a meaningful signal — it can reflect UC's track record with this school's graduates, students presenting strongly in UC's holistic review (essays, EC's, context), or institutional familiarity helping at the margin. The data can't distinguish which, but the pattern itself is real and worth understanding.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 0% (87→87 from 2020 to 2025), tracking the peer-group median of +1%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-3.0%/yr), enrollment projects to ~765 by 2028 — about 74 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 74 fewer students. At a tuition of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual tuition revenue at risk.
Estimate seeded by other religious private school typical — wide range: Jewish day $25k–35k, Lutheran/Christian $10k–18k. NCES doesn't publish per-school tuition; adjust to your school's actual figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvary Chapel High School | Private · Other religious | 839 | 27.6% | +0% |
| Peer-group median | 36.7% | +1% | ||
| Servite High School | Private · Catholic | 767 | 24.6% | -2% |
| Crean Lutheran High School | Private · Other religious | 1126 | 94.4% | +40% |
| Orange Lutheran High School | Private · Other religious | 1141 | 36.7% | -3% |
| Newport Christian School | Private · Other religious | 458 | — | +140% |
| Saint John Bosco High School | Private · Catholic | 869 | 31.1% | -3% |
| Crossroads Christian School | Private · Other religious | 733 | — | +36% |
| Calvary Chapel Christian School | Private · Other religious | 619 | — | -4% |
| Saint Margarets Episcopal Sch | Private · Other religious | 1159 | 73.8% | -16% |
| Sage Hill School | Private · secular | 590 | 150.7% | +10% |
| Mater Dei High School | Private · Catholic | 1849 | 36.4% | +3% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type, and religious orientation. Methodology →
GPA figures reflect 2024 — UC has not yet released applicant/admit GPA for 2025.
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA? Based on 2024 (latest GPA available).
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego | 4.09 | 30.0% | 17.5% | +12.5pp | Over |
| UC Santa Barbara | 4.02 | 29.4% | 32.7% | -3.2pp | On target |
| UC Irvine | 4.03 | 29.2% | 24.4% | +4.7pp | On target |
Where Calvary Chapel High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants 5.0 points above what their GPAs predict (29.5% actual vs. 24.5% expected), based on 2024 data.
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) '24 | Avg GPA (Adm) '24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | — |
| UCLA → Elite | 16 | 3 | — | 18.8% | 3.4% | — | 4.13 | — |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 13 | 4 | — | 30.8% | 4.6% | — | 4.09 | 4.25 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 9 | 4 | — | 44.4% | 4.6% | — | 4.02 | 4.31 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 18 | 5 | — | 27.8% | 5.7% | — | 4.03 | 4.27 |
| UC Davis → | 11 | 8 | 3 | 72.7% | 9.2% | 37.5% | — | — |