Bolsa Grande High School
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Most similar nearby schools
Pacifica High School → Santiago High → Magnolia High School → Loara High School → Valley High → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-2.8%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,561 | -45 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,475 | -131 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,393 | -213 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Orange County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Enrollment is shrinking 2.3× the county rate (school -16.5% vs. county -7.1%) with stability (91.6%) near the county median. Two problems compounding — the recruitment side is the higher-leverage starting point.
149 of 1,782 students who enrolled at Bolsa Grande High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (8.4% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 4.6 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Garden Grove Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 28.7%
Federal: 13.1%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Garden Grove Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
+10.5 pp above peer median (16.6%) · Ranked #2 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
53.3%
27.1%
Higher than 68% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Bolsa Grande High School's UC Reach of 27.1% is above the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 76 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Bolsa Grande High School's UC Reach is higher than 68% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Bolsa Grande High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Garden Grove · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Bolsa Grande High School sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #2 of 11): 27% vs. a peer median of 17%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 8 points since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 16% (538→449 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of -14%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-2.8%/yr), enrollment projects to ~1475 by 2029 — about 131 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 131 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolsa Grande High School | Public | 1606 | 27.1% | -16% |
| Peer-group median | 16.6% | -14% | ||
| Pacifica High School | Public | 1616 | 18.3% | -7% |
| Santiago High | Public | 1557 | 20.6% | -16% |
| Magnolia High School | Public | 1560 | 9.2% | -17% |
| Loara High School | Public | 1511 | 13.5% | -20% |
| Valley High | Public | 1737 | 14.8% | +4% |
| Rancho Alamitos High School | Public | 1380 | 20.4% | -17% |
| La Quinta High | Public | 1989 | 40.2% | -7% |
| Costa Mesa High School | Public | 1610 | 14.5% | -8% |
| Los Amigos High School | Public | 1327 | 17.1% | -21% |
| Buena Park High School | Public | 1570 | 16.0% | -12% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 4.05 | 23.4% | 13.4% | +10.0pp | Over |
| UCLA | 3.90 | 7.9% | 9.0% | -1.1pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.84 | 30.4% | 23.9% | +6.5pp | Over |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.74 | 29.8% | 26.5% | +3.3pp | On target |
| UC Irvine | 3.84 | 24.6% | 21.0% | +3.7pp | On target |
| UC Davis | 3.76 | 26.7% | 32.0% | -5.4pp | Under |
Where Bolsa Grande High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (23.1% actual vs. 20.0% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 47 | 11 | 5 | 23.4% | 2.6% | 45.5% | 4.05 | 4.24 |
| UCLA → Elite | 101 | 8 | 3 | 7.9% | 1.9% | 37.5% | 3.90 | 4.28 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 115 | 35 | 12 | 30.4% | 8.2% | 34.3% | 3.84 | 4.19 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 47 | 14 | — | 29.8% | 3.3% | — | 3.74 | 4.10 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 142 | 35 | 20 | 24.6% | 8.2% | 57.1% | 3.84 | 4.13 |
| UC Davis → | 45 | 12 | — | 26.7% | 2.8% | — | 3.76 | 4.11 |