Ann Sobrato High School
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Leland High School → Christopher High School → Andrew P Hill High School → Gilroy High School → Oak Grove High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (+0.1%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~1,471 | +1 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~1,473 | +3 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~1,475 | +5 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Santa Clara County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Ann Sobrato High School is recruiting families faster than Santa Clara County is shrinking (school -3.0% vs. county -6.2%), but 139 students didn't make it to year-end. The recruitment engine works; the mid-year exits are worth understanding.
139 of 1,590 students who enrolled at Ann Sobrato High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (8.7% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 6.9 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Morgan Hill Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 61.7%
Federal: 10.2%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Morgan Hill Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
+7.8 pp above peer median (22.4%) · Ranked #6 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
53.3%
30.2%
Higher than 73% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Ann Sobrato High School's UC Reach of 30.2% is above the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
But in Santa Clara County, where the local median is 33.1% and the top-10% bar is 79.3%, this score is mid-pack rather than exceptional — typical of its market rather than a standout.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 72 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Ann Sobrato High School's UC Reach is higher than 73% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Ann Sobrato High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Morgan Hill · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Ann Sobrato High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #6 of 11): 30% vs. a peer median of 22%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has held roughly steady since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 3% (361→350 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -8%.
- ▸In business terms, this is market-share growth during a market contraction. Santa Clara County's senior population shrank 6% over the same window — Ann Sobrato High School only shrank 3%. So Ann Sobrato High School picked up about 3 percentage points of relative share — families chose it over the alternatives even as the overall pool got smaller. That's overperforming the market in a shrinking market.
- ▸Enrollment has been growing (+0.1%/yr); projects to ~1473 by 2029.
Enrollment projection
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann Sobrato High School | Public | 1470 | 30.2% | -3% |
| Peer-group median | 22.4% | -8% | ||
| Leland High School | Public | 1441 | 61.3% | -19% |
| Christopher High School | Public | 1628 | 13.1% | +1% |
| Andrew P Hill High School | Public | 1497 | 12.0% | -7% |
| Gilroy High School | Public | 1546 | 9.8% | +23% |
| Oak Grove High School | Public | 1288 | 14.4% | -21% |
| Pioneer High School | Public | 1342 | 35.4% | -10% |
| Yerba Buena High School | Public | 1555 | 33.6% | -5% |
| William C. Overfelt High | Public | 1357 | 11.8% | -9% |
| Willow Glen High School | Public | 1537 | 30.3% | -8% |
| Branham High School | Public | 1819 | 33.1% | +30% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 4.02 | 8.5% | 13.0% | -4.5pp | On target |
| UCLA | 4.06 | 8.0% | 9.6% | -1.5pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 4.05 | 16.5% | 18.9% | -2.5pp | On target |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.96 | 37.0% | 30.7% | +6.3pp | Over |
| UC Irvine | 4.03 | 20.4% | 27.8% | -7.4pp | Under |
| UC Davis | 3.99 | 36.0% | 32.8% | +3.3pp | On target |
Where Ann Sobrato High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (21.3% actual vs. 22.4% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 82 | 7 | 4 | 8.5% | 1.9% | 57.1% | 4.02 | 4.25 |
| UCLA → Elite | 87 | 7 | 6 | 8.0% | 1.9% | 85.7% | 4.06 | 4.21 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 91 | 15 | 4 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 26.7% | 4.05 | 4.26 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 92 | 34 | 7 | 37.0% | 9.0% | 20.6% | 3.96 | 4.26 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 98 | 20 | 7 | 20.4% | 5.3% | 35.0% | 4.03 | 4.26 |
| UC Davis → | 86 | 31 | 10 | 36.0% | 8.2% | 32.3% | 3.99 | 4.24 |