Aliso Niguel High School
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Most similar nearby schools
San Juan Hills High School → Trabuco Hills High School → Capistrano Valley High School → University High → San Clemente High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-2.6%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~2,469 | -65 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~2,344 | -190 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~2,225 | -309 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Orange County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Enrollment and retention both close to Orange County baseline. The demographic tide is the main mover; no internal break in the system, but no outperformance either.
183 of 2,631 students who enrolled at Aliso Niguel High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (7.0% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Absenteeism is up 6.5 pp since 2016-17. A rising absenteeism trend often precedes formal departure — worth investigating which subgroups are driving it.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Capistrano Unified (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 56.4%
Federal: 6.4%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Capistrano Unified as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
On the peer median (33.5%) · Ranked #6 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
33.5%
53.3%
34.4%
Higher than 78% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Aliso Niguel High School's UC Reach of 34.4% is in the top quartile statewide (median 18.5%; top 25% bar 32.0%) — but it's still below the top-10% bar of 53.3%.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 68 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Aliso Niguel High School's UC Reach is higher than 78% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
| Campus | Entered | Finished in 4 yrs | Finished in 6 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC Irvine | 21 | 81% | 100% |
| UCLA | 20 | 100% | 100% |
Aliso Niguel High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Aliso Viejo · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Aliso Niguel High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #6 of 11): 34% vs. a peer median of 34%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 9 points since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 7% (749→699 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -9%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-2.6%/yr), enrollment projects to ~2344 by 2029 — about 190 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 190 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliso Niguel High School | Public | 2534 | 34.4% | -7% |
| Peer-group median | 33.5% | -9% | ||
| San Juan Hills High School | Public | 2519 | 25.3% | +15% |
| Trabuco Hills High School | Public | 2489 | 23.3% | -14% |
| Capistrano Valley High School | Public | 1980 | 35.5% | -9% |
| University High | Public | 2365 | 67.3% | -15% |
| San Clemente High School | Public | 2630 | 19.7% | -10% |
| Tesoro High School | Public | 2013 | 31.5% | -24% |
| Portola High School | Public | 2814 | 67.5% | +56% |
| Woodbridge High School | Public | 2220 | 45.9% | -8% |
| El Toro High School | Public | 1849 | 10.4% | -25% |
| Arnold O Beckman High School | Public | 2711 | 65.9% | +2% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 4.03 | 11.4% | 13.1% | -1.8pp | On target |
| UCLA | 4.02 | 9.3% | 9.4% | -0.0pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.97 | 32.4% | 20.7% | +11.7pp | Over |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.98 | 33.3% | 31.8% | +1.5pp | On target |
| UC Irvine | 3.99 | 26.2% | 26.2% | 0.0pp | On target |
| UC Davis | 4.00 | 41.3% | 32.8% | +8.4pp | Over |
Where Aliso Niguel High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (25.6% actual vs. 22.2% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 123 | 14 | 7 | 11.4% | 2.0% | 50.0% | 4.03 | 4.28 |
| UCLA → Elite | 172 | 16 | 7 | 9.3% | 2.3% | 43.8% | 4.02 | 4.30 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 176 | 57 | 28 | 32.4% | 8.3% | 49.1% | 3.97 | 4.23 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 171 | 57 | 8 | 33.3% | 8.3% | 14.0% | 3.98 | 4.25 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 149 | 39 | 5 | 26.2% | 5.7% | 12.8% | 3.99 | 4.22 |
| UC Davis → | 126 | 52 | — | 41.3% | 7.6% | — | 4.00 | 4.18 |