Alisal High School
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Most similar nearby schools
Salinas High School → North Salinas High School → Everett Alvarez High School → Rancho San Juan High School → Hollister High School → Compare all similar →Enrollment trend & projection
If this trend holds (-0.1%/yr, Total enrollment)
At per-pupil funding of $ / student:
| Horizon | Projected Total enrollment | Change | Funding impact / yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr (2027) | ~2,808 | -3 | $0 |
| 3 yr (2029) | ~2,801 | -10 | $0 |
| 5 yr (2031) | ~2,794 | -17 | $0 |
Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.
Enrollment stability & demand — 2024-25
Two complementary signals: retention (do students stay once enrolled?) and demand (are families choosing the school?). Read against the Monterey County baseline — the demographic tide is moving every CA HS, so a school's gap vs. county is the actionable signal.
Enrollment is shrinking faster than Monterey County (school +0.3% vs. county +9.8%) with stability (90.5%) near the county median. Two problems compounding — the recruitment side is the higher-leverage starting point.
273 of 2,872 students who enrolled at Alisal High School this year didn't maintain continuous enrollment (9.5% non-stability). Mid-year transfers, dropouts, and other exits are all counted.
Stability by student group
Nearest peer high schools
Source: California Department of Education, Stability Rate 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 cumulative enrollees so by-design-high-churn continuation schools don't dominate the bottom of the distribution. Cumulative enrollment counts every student on the rolls during the year, so it can exceed peak-day enrollment.
Chronic absenteeism — 2024-25
Share of students missing 10% or more of expected attendance — the leading indicator that often precedes the demand decline shown above. Families disengaging tend to raise absenteeism first, then formally leave. Basis: grades 9–12.
Low and stable absenteeism — students are engaged and showing up. The leading indicator is healthy.
Source: California Department of Education, Chronic Absenteeism 2024-25. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥100 eligible students. CDE didn't publish a usable 2019-20 file (COVID).
SBAC academic outcomes — grade 11, 2025
Share of grade-11 students meeting or exceeding the California standard on Smarter Balanced ELA and Math. This is the academic-readiness signal that pairs with UC Reach (post-grad outcomes), stability (retention), and absenteeism (engagement). Note: statewide median Math is only ~20% — a school at 20% isn't an outlier; one at 45%+ genuinely is.
Source: California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress (CAASPP) Smarter Balanced research files. Benchmarks limited to non-virtual public & charter HS with ≥30 tested students.
Student composition — 2025-26
HS grades 9–12 racial/ethnic composition and program subgroups, from CDE Census Day Enrollment. Two-year shift shown when ≥1 pt — surfaces how the community served has changed since 2023-24.
Race / ethnicity
Program subgroups
Source: California Department of Education, Census Day Enrollment 2025-26 (HS grades 9–12). Δ shown when shift is ≥1 pt since 2023-24. Categories below 0.5% omitted.
District financial profile — Salinas Union High (FY2020)
From 4 years of NCES F-33 filings (the federally-mandated district finance survey). Public schools don't have their own books — the district does. These figures show the financial scale, revenue dependence, instruction-vs-overhead mix, and long-term debt that shape what a school can sustain.
Local: 18.9%
Federal: 10.6%
Source: NCES F-33 Annual Survey of School System Finances (Urban Institute Education Data API). Latest year currently published: FY2020. F-33 is a district-level federal filing — it reflects the Salinas Union High as a whole, not this individual school's books. Revenue mix shows where the district's dollars come from (state aid dominates in CA via LCFF). Instruction share is current expenditure on instruction ÷ total current expenditure (national benchmark ~60%). Long-term debt is end-of-year outstanding (mostly facilities bonds).
+3.6 pp above peer median (16.5%) · Ranked #5 of 11 similar schools
18.5%
53.3%
20.1%
Higher than 54% of California high schools (1105 ranked, ≥50 seniors)
Alisal High School's UC Reach of 20.1% is above the California median (18.5%). The top 10% of CA schools achieve 53.3% or higher.
For context, the elite tier (top 1%) clears 102.7% — a gap of 83 pp from where this school sits.
Overall, Alisal High School's UC Reach is higher than 54% of California high schools (1105 ranked).
Alisal High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot
Public · Salinas · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools
- ▸On UC Reach, Alisal High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #5 of 11): 20% vs. a peer median of 16%.
- ▸Its UC Reach has risen 8 points since 2018.
- ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 0% (630→632 from 2018 to 2026), trailing the peer-group median of +14%.
- ▸At its recent rate (-0.1%/yr), enrollment projects to ~2801 by 2029 — about 10 fewer students than today.
Enrollment projection
That's about 10 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.
Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.
Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools
| School | Type | Size | UC Reach | Enroll. trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alisal High School | Public | 2811 | 20.1% | +0% |
| Peer-group median | 16.5% | +14% | ||
| Salinas High School | Public | 2356 | 24.2% | -8% |
| North Salinas High School | Public | 2046 | 11.6% | +15% |
| Everett Alvarez High School | Public | 1826 | 18.9% | -11% |
| Rancho San Juan High School | Public | 1559 | 29.0% | +31% |
| Hollister High School | Public | 3330 | 10.7% | +22% |
| Watsonville High School | Public | 2232 | 14.2% | +1% |
| North Monterey County High Sch | Public | 1169 | 21.8% | +14% |
| Monterey High School | Public | 1413 | 38.0% | +27% |
| Gilroy High School | Public | 1546 | 9.8% | +23% |
| Pajaro Valley Hs | Public | 1270 | 10.9% | -4% |
UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →
Admit rate vs. CA peer average, by campus ⓘ
How does this school's admit rate at each UC compare to other CA schools whose applicant pool averages the same GPA?
| Campus | Applicant GPA (avg) | Actual admit rate | CA peer avg | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 3.72 | 12.4% | 12.8% | -0.5pp | On target |
| UCLA | 3.80 | 6.8% | 9.0% | -2.2pp | On target |
| UC San Diego | 3.65 | 38.4% | 29.9% | +8.5pp | Over |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.57 | 28.9% | 30.6% | -1.7pp | On target |
| UC Irvine | 3.70 | 25.3% | 17.9% | +7.5pp | Over |
| UC Davis | 3.62 | 36.6% | 32.5% | +4.2pp | On target |
Where Alisal High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ
Overall, this school admits its UC applicants in line with what their GPAs predict (25.7% actual vs. 23.0% expected).
UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2025
Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.
Campus Breakdown — 2025
| Campus | Applicants | Admits | Enrollees | Admit Rate | UC Reach | Yield | Avg GPA (App) | Avg GPA (Adm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley → Elite | 89 | 11 | 7 | 12.4% | 1.7% | 63.6% | 3.72 | 4.17 |
| UCLA → Elite | 73 | 5 | — | 6.8% | 0.8% | — | 3.80 | 4.17 |
| UC San Diego → Selective | 73 | 28 | 4 | 38.4% | 4.2% | 14.3% | 3.65 | 4.06 |
| UC Santa Barbara → Selective | 76 | 22 | 5 | 28.9% | 3.3% | 22.7% | 3.57 | 4.07 |
| UC Irvine → Selective | 75 | 19 | 4 | 25.3% | 2.9% | 21.1% | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| UC Davis → | 131 | 48 | 17 | 36.6% | 7.3% | 35.4% | 3.62 | 3.98 |