STEPHENS ACADEMY
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -4.7%/year, projecting from 2024's 65 students:
≈ 14 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $13,188 per student in district revenue, the 14 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $184,632/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEP MAGNOLIA |
Public | 0.6 | 1 | — |
| MAGNOLIA WEST H S MAGNOLIA |
Public | 1.4 | 2,356 | +9.3% |
| Central Baptist Academy Pinehurst |
Private | 3.1 | 37 | — |
| MAGNOLIA H S MAGNOLIA |
Public | 4.5 | 2,292 | +6.6% |
| Rosehill Christian School Tomball |
Private | 8.5 | 387 | -5.6% |
| TOMBALL H S TOMBALL |
Public | 10.0 | 3,227 | +26.0% |
| COMQUEST ACADEMY TOMBALL |
Public · charter | 11.2 | 18 | — |
| LAKE CREEK H S MONTGOMERY |
Public | 11.4 | 1,692 | +4.9% |