CARNEGIE VANGUARD H S
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -2.2%/year, projecting from 2024's 855 students:
≈ 89 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $13,316 per student in district revenue, the 89 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $1,185,124/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCC LIFE SKILLS PROGRAM HOUSTON |
Public | 1.3 | 69 | -6.8% |
| KINDER H S FOR PERFORMING AND VISUAL ARTS HOUSTON |
Public | 1.5 | 782 | +0.1% |
| HOUSTON ACADEMY FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES HOUSTON |
Public | 1.5 | 473 | +2.8% |
| HARRIS COUNTY JUVENILE DETENTION CENTER HOUSTON |
Public · charter | 1.6 | 138 | +48.4% |
| Incarnate Word Academy Houston |
Private | 1.7 | 311 | -0.3% |
| YOUNG WOMEN'S COLLEGE PREP ACADEMY HOUSTON |
Public | 1.7 | 233 | +8.9% |
| H S FOR LAW AND JUSTICE HOUSTON |
Public | 2.5 | 391 | -10.9% |
| NORTHSIDE H S HOUSTON |
Public | 2.6 | 1,058 | -20.0% |