BUFFALO H S
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -1.1%/year, projecting from 2024's 304 students:
≈ 16 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $14,957 per student in district revenue, the 16 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $239,312/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEON H S JEWETT |
Public | 13.2 | 214 | +4.4% |
| OAKWOOD H S OAKWOOD |
Public | 15.2 | 51 | -13.6% |
| TEAGUE H S TEAGUE |
Public | 16.0 | 371 | +0.0% |
| TEAGUE LION ACADEMY TEAGUE |
Public | 16.0 | 29 | — |
| CENTERVILLE JR-SR H S CENTERVILLE |
Public | 16.0 | 205 | -6.4% |
| FAIRFIELD H S FAIRFIELD |
Public | 17.6 | 500 | +1.4% |
| GROESBECK H S GROESBECK |
Public | 27.0 | 497 | +18.1% |
| MEXIA H S MEXIA |
Public | 28.3 | 535 | +0.4% |