AXTELL/BE DAEP
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -17.0%/year, projecting from 2024's 4 students:
≈ 2 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $15,927 per student in district revenue, the 2 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $31,854/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRUCEVILLE-EDDY H S EDDY |
Public | 0.0 | 201 | -1.5% |
| LORENA HIGH LORENA |
Public | 5.8 | 580 | +13.3% |
| MOODY H S MOODY |
Public | 7.2 | 216 | +3.3% |
| TROY H S TROY |
Public | 7.4 | 502 | +10.6% |
| CHILTON SCHOOL CHILTON |
Public | 11.1 | 146 | -3.3% |
| MCGREGOR H S MCGREGOR |
Public | 12.4 | 437 | +0.2% |
| MIDWAY H S WACO |
Public | 12.6 | 2,687 | +5.1% |
| ROBINSON H S ROBINSON |
Public | 13.1 | 725 | +5.1% |