TRINITY CHARTER SCHOOLS - LOCKHART CAMPUS
Enrollment trend & projection
Total enrollment + grade 12, NCES Common Core of Data (2021–2024).
If the recent trend holds…
At its recent rate of -5.1%/year, projecting from 2024's 134 students:
≈ 31 fewer students by 2029 — a real revenue/relevance risk worth getting ahead of.
An extrapolation of the recent trajectory, not a forecast of the school's plans; ignores one-off shocks.
Revenue at risk
At $21,940 per student in district revenue, the 31 students projected to be lost by 2029 represent ≈ $680,140/year in funding at risk.
District total revenue ÷ enrollment, NCES F-33. Public funding largely follows enrollment, so a shrinking class is a recurring budget hit.
Nearby high schools — the local competition
The closest high schools families here also consider, and where their enrollment is heading.
| School | Type | Miles | HS enrollment | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOCKHART H S LOCKHART |
Public | 2.5 | 2,006 | +7.7% |
| THE EXCEL CENTER (FOR ADULTS) LOCKHART |
Public · charter | 2.9 | 571 | +31.9% |
| THE EXCEL CENTER FOR ADULTS - LOCKHART LOCKHART |
Public · charter | 2.9 | 118 | -37.2% |
| The Gospel Lighthouse Christian Academy Lockhart |
Private | 3.5 | 11 | — |
| LOCKHART PRIDE H S LOCKHART |
Public | 3.5 | 66 | — |
| PRAIRIE LEA EL PRAIRIE LEA |
Public | 8.4 | 72 | +16.1% |
| LULING H S LULING |
Public | 11.1 | 402 | -6.7% |
| Southwest Texas High School San Marcos |
Private | 12.0 | 101 | — |