Test Prep Gurus Intelligence
Confidential · Board of Trustees

College Outcomes & Enrollment Review Sample

Wexford Academy · Grades 7–12Classes of 2019–2025 Enrollment: 1,610Prepared June 2026
Sources connected for this engagement SIS (Blackbaud) Admissions & enrollment CRM Financial-aid system NSC StudentTracker Naviance / Scoir

Executive summary

Wexford’s outcomes remain among the strongest in the region — near-universal degree completion and a deep most-selective college list. At this altitude the board’s task is not to fix outcomes but to protect an edge that is quietly under pressure: yield has softened three points as competition and affordability intensify, and the school’s socioeconomic access trails its own stated mission. The academics are not the risk — the enrollment economics are.

4-yr matriculation
100%
at parity w/ peers
Most-selective matric.
58%
▲ 9 vs peers
6-yr completion
96%
▲ 6 vs peers
Re-enrollment
94%
▼ 2 vs 2023
Admissions yield
61%
▼ 3 vs 2023

What only your data makes visible

Built entirely from Wexford’s own systems

The sections that follow cannot be produced from any public dataset or off-the-shelf tool. Each is built by connecting Wexford’s own admissions, enrollment, advising, giving, and outcome data — and each is tagged with the source that unlocks it. This is insight that exists only because it is built from your school.

Where graduates are a decade out

Requires: NSC + alumni survey + career data

The single most powerful answer to “is the tuition worth it?” — and the asset almost no school can document. Assembled from Clearinghouse records, alumni surveys, and career data.

Earned a graduate degree
47%
▲ 14 vs national
Career requiring advanced study
62%
 
Would choose Wexford again
91%
alumni survey
Tech / engineering24%
Healthcare / medicine18%
Finance / business17%
Law / policy12%
Arts / media11%
Education / nonprofit9%

Career sector of alumni 10+ years out. A 47% graduate-degree rate and a top-heavy professional profile are marketing and development gold — and currently invisible to prospective families.

Where the class matriculates — and whether they finish

Requires: NSC StudentTracker

For a school like Wexford the admit list is well known; the data that matters — and that most schools never see — is whether matriculation translates into a completed degree. It does, almost universally.

Selectivity of college attendedShare6-yr complete
Most selective (<20% admit)58%97%
Highly selective (20–40%)26%96%
Selective (40–70%)13%94%
Other3%90%

By type: private national universities 46% · liberal-arts colleges 24% · UC campuses 17% · out-of-state public flagships 11% · other 2%.

Persist to year 298%
Complete any degree (6-yr)96%
Enroll in graduate study (5-yr)41%

A 96% completion rate is the single most powerful — and least used — number the school owns. It is the proof, beyond any admit list, that the value proposition holds.

The family lifecycle — inquiry to gift

Requires: CRM + SIS + development

Joining admissions, enrollment, and giving data — two offices that almost never share — to reveal the lifetime value of an enrolled family.

Inquiry
1,240
prospective / yr
Enroll
61%
yield of admits
Retain
88%
to graduation
Graduate
100%
to a 4-yr college
Give
60%
become donors
~$250K+
estimated lifetime value per enrolled family (net tuition plus lifetime giving). The hidden insight: aided seventh-grade entrants give at nearly twice the rate of full-pay late entrants — which reframes financial aid as a development investment, not a cost.

Next year’s re-enrollment risk

Requires: live SIS + aid + CRM

The forward-looking module — current families flagged before the re-enrollment window closes, while the school can still act.

31
returning families are flagged at elevated re-enrollment risk for next year — roughly $1.5M in multi-year tuition still recoverable.
Risk signalFamiliesLeading factorRecommended action
Financial pressure14Aid appeal / late paymentProactive aid conversation
Transition grade (8th→9th)9Re-shopping the marketUpper-school re-recruitment
Low engagement signals8Event / portal inactivityAdvisor outreach

Outcomes by financial-aid status

Requires: SIS + aid system + NSC

The mission question, answered with data: aided students perform exactly as well as full-pay students — there is no outcomes gap. There is, however, an access gap.

Full-pay familiesn = 212 · 73% of class
Most-sel.
59%
6-yr comp.
96%
Persist
98%
Aided familiesn = 78 · 27% of class
Most-sel.
56%
6-yr comp.
97%
Persist
99%
Identical outcomes regardless of aid — but aided students are 27% of the class against the board’s 35% access target, and the thinnest band is middle-income families just above the aid threshold.

Tuition & aid against the peer set

Requires: public 990s + association data

Reconstructed from public filings and association data — the one comparison no head of school can assemble alone, because peers guard their discount rates. Your school is highlighted.

SchoolTuitionDiscount rateNet tuition / student
Peer Independent A$52,40024%$39,800
Peer Independent B$49,90027%$36,400
Wexford Academy (you)$48,50018%$39,770
Peer Independent C$47,20022%$36,800
Peer Independent D$46,80031%$32,300
Peer Independent E$45,00020%$36,000
Peer Independent F$43,50025%$32,600

Wexford runs the lowest discount rate in its set (18% vs. a 24% median) — strong net revenue per student, but an unused yield lever. The aid-versus-revenue tradeoff is now a board-level choice, made visible for the first time.

The demand you’re not capturing

Requires: CRM geodata + Census ACS

Where inquiries originate, overlaid with where demographically-matched families actually live. The gap is the demand going to competitors by default.

AreaMatched householdsInquiries / yrOpportunity
Eastside (901xx)1,5409Very high
Northridge corridor1,82022High
Hillcrest1,21018Medium
Coastal south98041Saturated

Three areas within six miles hold roughly 3,400 matched households but send fewer than 30 inquiries a year — your single largest pool of winnable demand, currently defaulting to competitors.

The feeder pipeline, tracked

Requires: SIS history + CRM source

Which schools, preschools, and parishes feed Wexford — and which are quietly contracting or shifting to a rival. Most schools track this only by anecdote.

Feeder sourceStudents (5-yr)TrendStatus
Oakmont Elementary (private)34Strong, growing
Bright Beginnings Preschool22Growing
Hill Country Day17Flat
St. Brendan’s (parish)28Drying up
Lincoln Magnet (public)19Shifting to Peer B

Two of your top-five historical feeders are contracting, and Lincoln’s pipeline now splits toward Peer B — the same school winning your cross-admit battles. A quiet erosion no enrollment dashboard surfaces.

Where Wexford wins and loses families

Requires: Admissions CRM + yield survey

Cross-admit results and the reasons admitted families decline — the levers that move yield.

Cross-admit vs.FamiliesWexford win rate
Peer Independent A6158%
Peer Independent B4439%
Peer Independent C3747%
Strong public / magnet5266%

Peer B is the one school Wexford loses outright — and the gap has widened two years running.

Cost / value41%
Chose more selective19%
Distance / logistics22%
Specific program18%

Why admitted families declined. Cost-vs-value leads by a wide margin — a messaging and aid-strategy problem more than a product one.

Filling the entering class

Requires: Admissions CRM

Demand is healthy — the constraint is conversion. The school attracts strong interest and admits selectively, but yield is where the softening shows. Bars are shares of inquiries.

Inquiriesprospective families
1,240 · 100%
Appliedcompleted application
880 · 71%
Admittedoffers extended
372 · 30%
146 admitted families declined — 38% of them enrolled at one of three peer independents
Enrolled61% yield
226 · 18%

Enrollment & net-revenue outlook to 2029

Requires: CRM funnel + indicators

Applications hold steady, but the yield drift — not demand — bends the net-tuition-revenue line. Projected against the school’s funnel, regional independent-school demand, and catchment indicators.

108102 9690 202120222023 202420252029p
Net tuition revenue (index)Applications (index)Projected range

Net-revenue scenarios

Requires: SIS + aid + finance

What each lever does to net tuition revenue — the working model CFOs rarely have, making the aid-versus-growth tradeoff explicit instead of a values debate.

LeverAnnual Δ net revenue5-yr cohort ΔSide effect
Restore yield to 64% (+3 pts)+$0.5M+$2.7MImproves access
Lift re-enrollment +1 pt+$0.4M+$2.1MNeutral
Cut discount rate 2 pts+$0.6M+$3.0MLowers yield & access
Yield + retention combined+$0.9M+$4.8MBest on both

Recovering yield and a point of retention beats cutting the discount on net revenue — and improves access instead of shrinking it. The model turns the tradeoff into a number.

Demand is not the problem — conversion and retention are. Restoring yield to its prior 64% would add ~11 enrolled students a year; recovering two points of re-enrollment protects another full cohort’s worth of multi-year tuition.
~$2.4M
At-risk net tuition revenue*

A sequenced roadmap

Tied to the findings above
Now0–90 days
  • Engage the 31 at-risk families before the re-enrollment window — the fastest revenue you can protect.
  • Put the 96% completion figure at the center of admissions messaging — it’s your strongest, least-used asset.
This yearthis admissions cycle
  • Confront the cost-vs-value objection directly — the leading reason admitted families decline.
  • Rebuild the middle-income aid band — the thinnest part of the class and the access mission’s weak point.
  • Win back ground against Peer B, the one cross-admit battle you’re losing.
Multi-year2–3 year horizon
  • Move toward the 35% aid / access target the board has set, now that outcomes prove it carries no academic cost.
  • Diversify the college list beyond the handful of repeat feeders.
  • Institute an annual outcomes & enrollment review so trustees track yield, retention, and matriculation each cycle.

What the data says

Summary of findings
  1. Outcomes are elite and near-universal. 96% degree completion and 58% most-selective matriculation, both well ahead of peer independents.
  2. The pressure is on enrollment economics, not academics. Yield down 3 points, re-enrollment down 2, with cost-vs-value the leading objection.
  3. Aided and full-pay students perform identically — but access trails the school’s own 35% mission target.
  4. One peer school accounts for most cross-admit losses — a targeted, winnable problem.
  5. Demand is healthy; conversion is the constraint — which is exactly the kind of problem strategy and messaging can fix.
Your data.Unrivaled insight.Uncompromising protection.

How an engagement works — your data, your insight

Everything in this report is produced from one school’s own systems. When an engagement begins, we connect your SIS, Clearinghouse, advising, and admissions data to generate analysis no public dataset can — insight that is unique to your school because it is built from your school. Here is how that data is protected.

Governed by a signed data agreement under FERPA’s school-official exception, scoped to your engagement only.
Encrypted in transit and at rest, with access limited to the analysts on your engagement.
Aggregated and de-identified wherever the analysis allows, so student records are minimized by design.
Never sold, never shared, never used to train models — and returned or deleted on request.